Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
9.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W62-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W49-14 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W31-19 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L24-31 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | L27-34 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:80% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:41% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:76% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:28% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:90% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:81% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:45% |
Data from 2024-10-06
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 5.1% | 99.4% |
| 6-2 | 25.2% | 18.6% |
| 5-3 | 38.9% | 0.1% |
| 4-4 | 23.7% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 6.3% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.8% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-06
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-06
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 9.3% (-0.4%) | 9.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 10.0% (+0.1%) | 9.7% (-0.1%) | |
| 11.8% (+2.0%) | 2.0% (-7.8%) | |
| 9.7% (-0.2%) | 9.9% (+0.1%) | |
| 9.4% (-0.4%) | 13.1% (+3.3%) | |
| 9.9% (+0.1%) | 9.7% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Stanford
SyracuseLouisville
California
Wake Forest
Georgia TechCCG: 30.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
LouisvilleCCG: 11.8% • Scenario: 79.9%
Data from 2024-10-06
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
99.4%
2.3%Any 1 loss
34.9%
14.2%
99.4%
2.8%40.4%
0.2%
36.1%
0.7%
30.3%
0.6%
29.2%
0.6%
16.5%
3.3%
15.2%
6.0%Any 2 losses
18.3%
13.9%37.9%
0.8%30.4%
0.3%30.1%
0.7%28.4%
0.7%15.4%
4.1%15.3%
7.3%1.4%
<0.1%Data from 2024-10-06
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-06