Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W55-24 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W28-27 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W38-34 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W73-17 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | W34-24 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:53% | |
| 9 | 10/24 | Win prob:72% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:15% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:71% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:19% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:19% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:51% |
Data from 2024-10-06
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.1% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 1.3% | 83.4% |
| 6-2 | 7.9% | 9.8% |
| 5-3 | 23.4% | 0.0% |
| 4-4 | 33.9% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 24.2% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 8.2% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 1.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-06
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-06
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 1.6% (-0.3%) | 1.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 2.1% (+0.2%) | 1.8% (-0.1%) | |
| 1.9% (-0.0%) | 2.0% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.6% (-1.3%) | 3.1% (+1.2%) | |
| 1.8% (-0.1%) | 2.5% (+0.6%) | |
| 1.8% (-0.1%) | 2.0% (+0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Stanford
Syracuse
LouisvillePittsburgh
Wake Forest
Georgia TechCCG: 12.5% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
PittsburghCCG: 3.1% • Scenario: 52.8%
Data from 2024-10-06
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
83.4%
1.3%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
98.5%
<0.1%
95.5%
<0.1%84.9%
0.3%
79.7%
0.4%
77.1%
0.3%Any 2 losses
9.9%
7.9%37.9%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.0%
0.3%20.7%
<0.1%20.3%
0.3%20.0%
0.4%19.7%
0.1%18.9%
0.1%17.8%
0.3%14.9%
0.2%14.5%
0.3%14.2%
0.4%11.6%
0.2%8.0%
0.1%6.0%
1.3%5.8%
0.1%5.7%
1.8%5.0%
1.8%Any 3 losses
0.7%
0.4%0.9%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.6%
0.2%Data from 2024-10-06
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-06