Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
58.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | L3-34 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W66-20 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W59-35 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W40-14 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | W29-13 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:89% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:93% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:72% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:66% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:81% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:90% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:78% |
Data from 2024-10-06
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 32.1% | 95.9% |
| 7-1 | 42.8% | 60.7% |
| 6-2 | 20.4% | 6.6% |
| 5-3 | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| 4-4 | 0.4% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-06
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-06
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 57.4% (-0.8%) | 58.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 56.7% (-1.5%) | 58.9% (+0.7%) | |
| 57.7% (-0.4%) | 59.9% (+1.8%) | |
| 57.6% (-0.5%) | 58.6% (+0.5%) | |
| 61.2% (+3.0%) | 32.4% (-25.7%) | |
| 57.7% (-0.4%) | 58.6% (+0.5%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 61.2% • Scenario: 89.4%
Data from 2024-10-06
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
95.8%
22.4%Any 1 loss
68.8%
39.0%96.0%
6.5%95.8%
2.5%76.1%
2.7%74.6%
1.6%69.0%
5.3%64.2%
11.7%43.9%
8.8%Any 2 losses
33.0%
27.0%96.1%
0.8%78.1%
0.8%77.4%
0.3%71.8%
0.4%71.4%
0.2%69.8%
0.6%68.0%
1.5%66.0%
1.4%62.5%
3.2%46.1%
2.5%44.9%
1.0%17.3%
0.4%16.9%
0.6%14.9%
0.2%11.9%
1.4%7.5%
0.8%7.2%
2.8%5.9%
1.1%3.8%
2.0%3.4%
0.7%3.1%
4.5%Any 3 losses
14.3%
6.5%73.6%
<0.1%73.5%
<0.1%68.3%
0.2%63.5%
0.4%38.0%
0.3%21.5%
0.2%15.9%
<0.1%15.6%
<0.1%15.4%
0.1%14.5%
0.4%14.1%
0.1%11.0%
0.1%10.4%
0.3%9.5%
<0.1%9.2%
0.2%8.2%
0.8%8.0%
<0.1%6.3%
0.1%4.9%
0.2%4.5%
0.3%4.1%
0.2%3.8%
1.2%2.4%
<0.1%2.2%
0.5%2.2%
0.6%Data from 2024-10-06
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-06