American Athletic Conference

American Athletic Conference Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-10-13

American Athletic ConferenceConference Standings

T1ArmyARMY5-06-072.1%
T1NavyNAVY3-05-039.0%
T1TulaneTULN2-04-269.2%
T1North TexasUNT2-05-17.5%
T1CharlotteCLT2-03-30.4%
T6MemphisMEM1-15-111.3%
T6East CarolinaECU1-13-30.4%
8RiceRICE1-22-4-
T9UT San AntonioUTSA0-22-4<0.1%
T9FL AtlanticFAU0-22-4<0.1%
T9South FloridaUSF0-22-4<0.1%
T9TempleTEM0-21-5-
T9TulsaTLSA0-22-4-
T9UABUAB0-31-5-

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely American Athletic Conference CCG Matchups

145.1%
ArmyARMY
vs
TULNTulane
219.2%
ArmyARMY
vs
NAVYNavy
316.4%
NavyNAVY
vs
TULNTulane
45.4%
ArmyARMY
vs
MEMMemphis
53.9%
North TexasUNT
vs
TULNTulane
63.4%
MemphisMEM
vs
TULNTulane
72.0%
MemphisMEM
vs
NAVYNavy
82.0%
ArmyARMY
vs
UNTNorth Texas
91.3%
NavyNAVY
vs
UNTNorth Texas
100.4%
MemphisMEM
vs
UNTNorth Texas
110.2%
ArmyARMY
vs
CLTCharlotte
120.2%
East CarolinaECU
vs
TULNTulane
130.1%
CharlotteCLT
vs
TULNTulane
140.1%
ArmyARMY
vs
ECUEast Carolina
15<0.1%
TulaneTULN
vs
UTSAUT San Antonio

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

American Athletic ConferenceCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7Week 8

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on American Athletic Conference CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 72.1%
Game
ArmyCCG OddsAway
ArmyCCG OddsHome
FL AtlanticFAU@UT San AntonioUTSA
71.9%
(-0.2%)		72.2%
(+0.1%)
TulsaTLSA@TempleTEM
72.2%
(+0.1%)		72.0%
(-0.0%)
North TexasUNT@MemphisMEM
70.2%
(-1.8%)		72.6%
(+0.6%)
RiceRICE@TulaneTULN
81.6%
(+9.5%)		71.7%
(-0.3%)
CharlotteCLT@NavyNAVY
83.5%
(+11.5%)		70.6%
(-1.5%)
East CarolinaECU@ArmyARMY
31.1%
(-41.0%)		76.1%
(+4.1%)
UABUAB@South FloridaUSF
72.3%
(+0.3%)		72.0%
(-0.1%)

Best Winner Combination for Army

UT San AntonioUTSATulsaTulsaRiceRiceCharlotteCharlotteUABUAB

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Army

ArmyArmy

CCG: 76.1% • Scenario: 91.0%

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

American Athletic ConferenceCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team9-08-18-07-27-16-36-25-3Overall
ArmyARMY100%71.1%-36.6%-1.6%--72.1%
TulaneTULN--100%-74.5%-5.6%-69.2%
NavyNAVY100%73.5%-41.9%-3.7%--39.0%
MemphisMEM----79.6%-5.2%<0.1%11.3%
North TexasUNT--100%-93.0%-6.6%<0.1%7.5%
CharlotteCLT--100%-74.5%-4.8%-0.4%
East CarolinaECU----93.6%-6.4%<0.1%0.4%
UT San AntonioUTSA------8.6%-<0.1%
FL AtlanticFAU------0.9%-<0.1%
South FloridaUSF------0.8%-<0.1%
RiceRICE------23.1%0.2%-
TempleTEM---------
TulsaTLSA---------
UABUAB---------

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

American Athletic ConferenceFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team9-08-18-07-27-16-36-25-45-34-44-53-53-62-61-70-8Avg Wins
ArmyARMY(5-0)33.6%44.3%0.0%19.0%0.0%3.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%-------8.1
TulaneTULN(2-0)-0.0%36.6%0.0%42.3%0.0%17.6%0.0%3.2%0.2%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.0%--7.1
NavyNAVY(3-0)4.9%23.4%0.0%38.1%0.0%24.9%0.0%7.6%0.0%0.0%1.0%0.0%<0.1%---6.9
MemphisMEM(1-1)---0.0%11.2%0.0%44.8%0.0%33.4%9.4%0.0%1.2%0.0%<0.1%0.0%-5.6
North TexasUNT(2-0)-0.0%0.5%0.0%5.9%0.0%21.9%0.0%37.2%26.2%0.0%7.5%0.0%0.7%--4.9
CharlotteCLT(2-0)-0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.3%0.0%4.3%0.0%20.9%40.1%0.0%28.9%0.0%5.5%--3.9
East CarolinaECU(1-1)---0.0%0.2%0.0%3.1%0.0%17.1%37.7%0.0%30.7%0.0%10.1%1.1%-3.7
South FloridaUSF(0-2)-----0.0%2.8%0.0%16.4%33.1%0.0%31.3%0.0%13.7%2.5%0.1%3.6
UT San AntonioUTSA(0-2)-----0.0%0.7%0.0%8.7%29.9%0.0%37.4%0.0%19.1%3.9%0.3%3.2
FL AtlanticFAU(0-2)-----0.0%1.8%0.0%11.4%27.3%0.0%32.5%0.0%20.1%6.2%0.8%3.2
RiceRICE(1-2)-----0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.5%7.1%0.0%32.1%0.0%43.6%16.7%-2.3
TulsaTLSA(0-2)-----0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.5%3.6%0.0%14.8%0.0%31.8%34.0%15.3%1.6
TempleTEM(0-2)-----0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%1.9%0.0%12.0%0.0%33.5%39.5%13.0%1.5
UABUAB(0-3)-------0.0%<0.1%1.1%0.0%10.4%0.0%33.4%40.5%14.5%1.4

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com