ArmyBlack Knights

6-0 T1st (5-0) in AAC

Data from 2024-10-13 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

72.1%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	vsLehighLEH	W42-7
2	9/07	@Florida AtlanticFAU	W24-7
4	9/21	vsRiceRICE	W37-14
5	9/26	@TempleTEM	W42-14
6	10/05	@TulsaTLSA	W49-7
7	10/12	vsUABUAB	W44-10
8	10/19	vsEast CarolinaECU	Win prob:91%
10	11/02	vsAir ForceAF	Win prob:90%
11	11/09	@North TexasUNT	Win prob:68%
13	11/23	vsNotre DameND(N)	Win prob:10%
14	11/30	vsUTSAUTSA	Win prob:87%
	12/14	vsNavyNAVY(N)	Win prob:62%

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
9-0	33.6%	100.0%
8-1	44.3%	71.1%
7-2	19.0%	36.6%
6-3	3.0%	1.6%
5-4	0.1%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

62.7%

26.7%

7.5%

2.8%

0.3%

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
Florida AtlanticFAU@UTSAUTSA	71.9% (-0.2%)	72.2% (+0.1%)
TulsaTLSA@TempleTEM	72.2% (+0.1%)	72.0% (-0.0%)
North TexasUNT@MemphisMEM	70.2% (-1.8%)	72.6% (+0.6%)
RiceRICE@TulaneTULN	81.6% (+9.5%)	71.7% (-0.3%)
CharlotteCLT@NavyNAVY	83.5% (+11.5%)	70.6% (-1.5%)
East CarolinaECU@ArmyARMY	31.1% (-41.0%)	76.1% (+4.1%)
UABUAB@South FloridaUSF	72.3% (+0.3%)	72.0% (-0.1%)

Best Winner Combination for

UTSA

Tulsa

Rice

Charlotte

UAB

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Army

CCG: 76.1% • Scenario: 91.0%

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

3.0%

Any 1 loss

96.4%

31.7%

100.0%

1.8%

100.0%

27.3%

100.0%

0.3%

57.5%

0.3%

54.2%

0.5%

43.6%

1.4%

Any 2 losses

71.8%

40.8%

100.0%

16.4%

100.0%

2.9%

100.0%

0.2%

55.2%

0.3%

52.2%

2.5%

51.4%

0.2%

51.1%

4.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

47.2%

<0.1%

44.9%

12.9%

44.1%

0.8%

38.4%

0.1%

2.4%

0.2%

2.0%

<0.1%

0.8%

0.1%

Any 3 losses

43.0%

19.8%

100.0%

1.8%

66.7%

<0.1%

53.8%

2.5%

52.4%

0.3%

52.4%

1.6%

48.5%

0.4%

47.8%

<0.1%

44.9%

1.4%

44.6%

7.8%

37.5%

<0.1%

6.9%

<0.1%

2.8%

0.4%

2.3%

0.1%

1.9%

1.3%

<0.1%

1.1%

1.3%

Any 4 losses

16.6%

3.8%

52.7%

0.1%

50.4%

0.3%

43.2%

0.9%

3.3%

<0.1%

3.0%

0.2%

1.9%

0.2%

1.6%

0.8%

1.5%

1.2%

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com