NavyMidshipmen

5-0 T1st (3-0) in AAC

Data from 2024-10-13 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

39.0%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/31	vsBucknellBUCK	W49-21
2	9/07	vsTempleTEM	W38-11
4	9/21	vsMemphisMEM	W56-44
5	9/28	@UABUAB	W41-18
6	10/05	@Air ForceAF	W34-7
8	10/19	vsCharlotteCLT	Win prob:89%
9	10/26	vsNotre DameND(N)	Win prob:6%
10	11/02	@RiceRICE	Win prob:83%
11	11/09	@South FloridaUSF	Win prob:73%
12	11/16	vsTulaneTULN	Win prob:31%
14	11/29	@East CarolinaECU	Win prob:76%
	12/14	vsArmyARMY(N)	Win prob:38%

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
9-0	4.9%	100.0%
8-1	23.4%	73.5%
7-2	38.1%	41.9%
6-3	24.9%	3.7%
5-4	7.6%	0%
4-5	1.0%	0%
3-6	0.1%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

49.2%

42.1%

5.2%

3.3%

0.1%

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
Florida AtlanticFAU@UTSAUTSA	39.5% (+0.5%)	38.8% (-0.2%)
TulsaTLSA@TempleTEM	38.6% (-0.4%)	39.2% (+0.2%)
North TexasUNT@MemphisMEM	35.5% (-3.5%)	40.1% (+1.1%)
RiceRICE@TulaneTULN	48.9% (+9.8%)	38.7% (-0.3%)
CharlotteCLT@NavyNAVY	16.0% (-23.0%)	42.0% (+3.0%)
East CarolinaECU@ArmyARMY	54.9% (+15.8%)	37.5% (-1.6%)
UABUAB@South FloridaUSF	38.8% (-0.2%)	39.1% (+0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for

Florida Atlantic

Temple

North Texas

Rice

East Carolina

UAB

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Memphis

Navy

CCG: 43.1% • Scenario: 67.8%

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

0.3%

Any 1 loss

93.4%

6.0%

100.0%

4.6%

100.0%

0.5%

97.8%

<0.1%

96.9%

0.1%

96.1%

<0.1%

93.0%

<0.1%

41.6%

0.7%

Any 2 losses

71.5%

24.0%

100.0%

7.6%

97.7%

1.6%

97.4%

<0.1%

96.9%

0.9%

96.9%

0.2%

96.7%

<0.1%

96.6%

0.1%

96.3%

0.6%

96.1%

1.4%

45.5%

1.1%

44.4%

<0.1%

44.4%

<0.1%

43.2%

10.0%

31.6%

<0.1%

17.9%

<0.1%

13.6%

<0.1%

11.1%

<0.1%

1.4%

0.1%

1.1%

0.2%

Any 3 losses

40.6%

37.1%

97.6%

2.8%

97.3%

1.5%

97.1%

2.3%

96.5%

0.9%

43.7%

16.6%

25.0%

<0.1%

23.1%

<0.1%

20.9%

0.3%

20.6%

<0.1%

20.1%

0.5%

19.7%

0.3%

17.9%

<0.1%

17.9%

<0.1%

16.7%

<0.1%

15.6%

<0.1%

14.9%

0.2%

12.8%

0.2%

2.8%

0.2%

2.7%

0.1%

2.4%

0.4%

2.1%

3.7%

2.1%

3.1%

1.9%

0.3%

1.8%

2.0%

1.2%

1.3%

Any 4 losses

4.4%

19.5%

22.9%

0.5%

20.6%

0.9%

20.0%

0.5%

16.6%

0.3%

16.5%

0.3%

12.5%

0.2%

2.4%

3.3%

2.1%

6.1%

1.7%

5.2%

1.4%

2.2%

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com