Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
11.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W40-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W38-17 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W20-12 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | L44-56 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W24-7 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W21-3 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:77% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:91% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:74% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:93% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:96% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:24% |
Data from 2024-10-13
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 11.2% | 79.6% |
| 6-2 | 44.8% | 5.2% |
| 5-3 | 33.4% | 0.0% |
| 4-4 | 9.4% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 1.2% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-13
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-13
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 10.8% (-0.4%) | 11.4% (+0.2%) | |
| 11.6% (+0.3%) | 11.1% (-0.2%) | |
| 1.1% (-10.2%) | 14.4% (+3.1%) | |
| 13.6% (+2.3%) | 11.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 15.0% (+3.7%) | 10.8% (-0.5%) | |
| 19.3% (+8.1%) | 10.5% (-0.8%) | |
| 11.5% (+0.2%) | 11.2% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
UTSAMemphis
Rice
Charlotte
East Carolina
UABCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
MemphisCCG: 14.4% • Scenario: 76.6%
Data from 2024-10-13
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
79.6%
11.2%Any 1 loss
5.2%
44.8%16.8%
0.9%13.9%
4.0%12.4%
1.0%12.3%
0.4%
7.3%
3.5%
3.4%
35.0%3.1%
<0.1%Data from 2024-10-13
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-13