Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
69.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W52-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L27-34 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | L19-34 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W41-33 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W45-10 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | W71-20 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:97% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:80% | |
| 10 | 10/31 | Win prob:93% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:98% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:69% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:76% |
Data from 2024-10-13
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 36.6% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 42.3% | 74.5% |
| 6-2 | 17.6% | 5.6% |
| 5-3 | 3.2% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-13
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-13
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 69.3% (+0.1%) | 69.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 68.9% (-0.2%) | 69.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 70.8% (+1.6%) | 68.7% (-0.5%) | |
| 44.9% (-24.3%) | 70.0% (+0.8%) | |
| 72.8% (+3.6%) | 68.7% (-0.5%) | |
| 79.7% (+10.5%) | 68.1% (-1.0%) | |
| 68.6% (-0.6%) | 69.3% (+0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Florida Atlantic
Temple
Rice
Charlotte
East CarolinaCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
TulaneEast CarolinaCCG: 80.8% • Scenario: 8.7%
Data from 2024-10-13
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
36.6%Any 1 loss
74.5%
42.3%100.0%
1.3%100.0%
0.6%98.4%
2.8%
95.8%
9.3%
74.3%
11.8%
55.6%
16.5%Any 2 losses
5.6%
17.6%55.6%
<0.1%39.6%
0.1%34.0%
<0.1%29.8%
0.2%28.8%
0.3%24.3%
0.7%13.3%
0.2%11.3%
0.4%8.9%
0.9%8.0%
0.3%7.0%
0.6%4.0%
1.3%3.7%
3.0%2.6%
4.2%1.9%
5.3%Data from 2024-10-13
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-13