Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
18.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | Win prob:90% | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:92% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:72% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:47% | |
| 6 | 10/03 | Win prob:79% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:69% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:60% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:45% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:53% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:48% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:66% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:70% |
Data from 2025-08-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.8% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 5.4% | 98.1% |
| 7-2 | 15.6% | 66.9% |
| 6-3 | 25.3% | 9.0% |
| 5-4 | 26.0% | 0.0% |
| 4-5 | 17.2% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 7.3% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 2.1% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.3% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-08-22
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2025-08-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 18.9% (+0.2%) | 18.7% (-0.1%) | |
| 19.7% (+0.9%) | 18.1% (-0.7%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 19.8% • Scenario: 12.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 19.7% • Scenario: 43.8%
Data from 2025-08-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.5%Any 1 loss
98.2%
3.5%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.6%
0.3%99.2%
0.5%98.6%
0.2%98.4%
0.4%98.0%
0.6%97.1%
0.3%96.6%
0.5%96.6%
0.2%Any 2 losses
72.3%
11.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.2%
0.1%98.8%
<0.1%98.4%
0.2%98.3%
<0.1%98.3%
0.2%98.2%
<0.1%98.0%
<0.1%97.8%
<0.1%96.9%
<0.1%96.8%
0.2%96.4%
0.2%95.1%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%94.3%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%84.9%
<0.1%84.0%
0.3%82.2%
0.2%82.0%
0.1%79.7%
<0.1%79.3%
0.1%79.0%
0.1%77.7%
0.2%77.5%
<0.1%76.1%
0.5%75.4%
0.3%75.1%
0.3%74.1%
0.2%73.8%
0.2%73.2%
0.1%73.0%
0.1%71.3%
0.2%70.5%
0.1%70.3%
0.2%68.8%
0.3%68.1%
0.2%68.0%
0.6%67.8%
0.2%67.6%
0.1%67.3%
0.2%65.6%
0.4%63.7%
0.5%63.3%
0.2%61.9%
0.2%61.0%
0.3%60.5%
0.4%59.0%
0.6%56.2%
0.4%52.6%
0.6%52.4%
<0.1%43.7%
0.3%Any 3 losses
25.7%
20.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%95.8%
<0.1%95.2%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%87.8%
<0.1%86.5%
<0.1%86.4%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.2%
<0.1%84.9%
0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.4%
<0.1%84.2%
<0.1%83.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%81.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.4%
<0.1%78.7%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%78.1%
<0.1%78.1%
<0.1%78.0%
0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.2%
<0.1%77.0%
0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.5%
<0.1%76.2%
<0.1%76.2%
<0.1%76.2%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.8%
<0.1%73.7%
<0.1%73.5%
0.2%73.3%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.3%
<0.1%70.2%
0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.3%
<0.1%68.9%
0.1%68.8%
<0.1%68.4%
<0.1%67.6%
<0.1%67.3%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.3%
<0.1%66.2%
0.1%65.0%
<0.1%64.9%
<0.1%64.7%
0.3%63.6%
<0.1%63.2%
0.1%63.2%
<0.1%63.1%
0.2%63.0%
0.1%62.9%
0.2%62.5%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%60.3%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.7%
<0.1%59.4%
0.2%59.3%
<0.1%59.2%
0.2%59.0%
<0.1%57.7%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.0%
<0.1%56.9%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%54.2%
<0.1%52.2%
0.3%52.0%
<0.1%51.7%
<0.1%51.7%
<0.1%50.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.3%
0.1%47.4%
<0.1%47.1%
<0.1%45.8%
<0.1%37.9%
<0.1%34.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.4%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.4%
0.1%18.9%
<0.1%18.8%
0.2%17.0%
<0.1%16.8%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.1%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.0%
0.1%14.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
0.1%13.5%
<0.1%12.9%
0.1%12.7%
0.3%12.7%
0.3%12.6%
0.2%12.4%
0.2%12.1%
0.2%12.1%
0.1%12.0%
<0.1%11.8%
0.1%11.7%
0.1%11.5%
0.1%11.4%
0.3%11.4%
0.2%11.4%
0.6%11.4%
0.1%10.7%
0.1%10.7%
0.2%10.6%
<0.1%10.5%
0.3%10.3%
0.3%10.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.9%
0.1%9.9%
<0.1%9.6%
0.1%9.6%
<0.1%9.6%
0.2%9.6%
0.2%9.5%
0.1%9.2%
<0.1%9.0%
0.1%8.9%
0.2%8.7%
0.1%8.6%
0.3%8.4%
<0.1%8.4%
0.3%8.3%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%8.1%
0.3%8.1%
0.2%7.9%
0.2%7.8%
0.1%7.8%
0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.6%
0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.5%
0.2%7.4%
0.2%7.3%
0.4%7.1%
0.5%6.9%
0.3%6.8%
0.5%6.7%
0.3%6.7%
0.4%6.6%
0.2%6.5%
<0.1%6.3%
0.3%6.3%
0.1%6.1%
<0.1%5.8%
0.2%5.5%
0.7%5.0%
0.3%4.9%
0.4%4.6%
0.1%4.0%
0.4%4.0%
0.1%3.9%
0.4%3.7%
0.2%Any 4 losses
13.6%
9.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%81.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%76.2%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.9%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.7%
<0.1%64.0%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%36.8%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.6%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%29.4%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%21.9%
<0.1%21.7%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.2%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%18.9%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.0%
<0.1%16.0%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.6%
<0.1%15.6%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.4%
<0.1%13.4%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.8%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.2%
<0.1%12.1%
<0.1%12.0%
0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.9%
<0.1%10.8%
<0.1%10.6%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.8%
<0.1%9.8%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.7%
0.1%9.6%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.4%
<0.1%9.3%
0.1%9.2%
0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.9%
<0.1%8.9%
<0.1%8.9%
<0.1%8.9%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.6%
0.2%8.6%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.6%
0.1%8.5%
<0.1%8.4%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.2%
0.1%8.0%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.5%
0.1%7.4%
0.1%7.3%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.0%
0.3%6.9%
<0.1%6.8%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.3%
0.2%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.2%
0.2%6.1%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.7%
0.2%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.4%
0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.1%
0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.9%
<0.1%4.9%
<0.1%4.6%
0.1%4.5%
0.1%4.4%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.8%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
0.2%3.2%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.6%
0.2%0.6%
0.2%Data from 2025-08-22