Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | Win prob:44% | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:60% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:90% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:23% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:37% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:47% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:62% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:45% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:23% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:61% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:34% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:16% |
Data from 2025-08-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 0.2% | 98.2% |
| 7-2 | 1.4% | 67.6% |
| 6-3 | 5.9% | 9.7% |
| 5-4 | 15.8% | 0.0% |
| 4-5 | 25.9% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 27.0% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 17.1% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 5.9% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.9% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-08-22
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2025-08-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1.6% (-0.0%) | 1.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.7% (+0.1%) | 1.6% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 1.8% • Scenario: 31.8%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 1.7% • Scenario: 43.8%
Data from 2025-08-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
100.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
71.6%
0.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%61.9%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%45.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.1%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
30.0%
1.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.0%
<0.1%64.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.3%
<0.1%56.0%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.2%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.2%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.9%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.8%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.3%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.9%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.1%
0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.8%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
17.3%
2.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%89.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%54.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.7%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.2%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.1%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.2%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.4%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.4%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.4%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.9%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.9%
0.2%6.9%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.6%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%Data from 2025-08-22