Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
34.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/01 | Win prob:80% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:90% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:57% | |
| 5 | 9/26 | Win prob:44% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:71% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:49% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:76% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:75% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:70% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:52% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:84% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:84% |
Data from 2025-08-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 2.1% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 11.2% | 99.3% |
| 7-2 | 24.4% | 72.6% |
| 6-3 | 29.1% | 12.2% |
| 5-4 | 20.7% | 0.0% |
| 4-5 | 9.3% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 2.7% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.5% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-08-22
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-08-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 34.3% (-0.2%) | 34.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 34.8% (+0.4%) | 34.2% (-0.3%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 35.2% • Scenario: 12.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 34.8% • Scenario: 43.8%
Data from 2025-08-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.9%Any 1 loss
99.5%
5.7%100.0%
0.7%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.1%99.9%
0.8%99.7%
0.4%99.2%
0.3%99.2%
1.2%99.1%
0.4%99.1%
1.0%Any 2 losses
81.6%
15.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.6%
0.3%99.6%
0.3%99.6%
0.2%99.6%
0.2%99.5%
0.2%99.3%
0.3%99.3%
0.7%99.2%
0.2%99.0%
0.8%99.0%
0.6%98.2%
0.1%97.6%
<0.1%97.6%
<0.1%97.5%
0.1%97.4%
<0.1%97.1%
<0.1%96.9%
0.1%96.8%
<0.1%96.4%
<0.1%96.0%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%86.2%
<0.1%85.5%
0.2%84.4%
0.1%84.2%
0.1%82.5%
0.1%81.7%
<0.1%80.8%
0.1%80.5%
0.2%80.1%
0.2%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.5%
0.4%79.4%
0.1%79.1%
0.2%78.8%
0.2%77.9%
0.1%77.8%
0.1%76.5%
0.2%75.8%
0.3%74.6%
0.4%74.0%
0.4%72.9%
0.3%72.2%
0.3%71.4%
0.4%70.9%
0.4%70.9%
<0.1%70.8%
1.1%68.7%
0.4%68.6%
0.4%68.0%
0.5%66.4%
0.9%64.3%
1.2%63.2%
0.3%Any 3 losses
44.5%
24.5%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.4%
0.2%99.0%
0.2%98.8%
<0.1%98.5%
<0.1%96.3%
<0.1%95.6%
<0.1%95.2%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%92.7%
<0.1%92.6%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.4%
<0.1%89.4%
<0.1%89.1%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.2%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%86.4%
<0.1%86.4%
0.2%86.2%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.4%
<0.1%83.9%
0.1%83.5%
0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.0%
0.1%82.2%
0.3%81.8%
<0.1%81.6%
<0.1%81.5%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%80.9%
<0.1%80.7%
0.1%80.3%
0.2%80.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.8%
0.2%79.1%
<0.1%78.3%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.4%
<0.1%77.3%
<0.1%77.3%
<0.1%77.1%
0.1%76.3%
<0.1%76.0%
<0.1%75.8%
<0.1%74.4%
<0.1%74.4%
<0.1%74.4%
<0.1%74.3%
0.3%74.2%
0.3%74.2%
<0.1%74.1%
0.3%73.7%
<0.1%73.7%
0.2%73.0%
<0.1%72.2%
<0.1%71.8%
0.8%71.8%
0.1%71.5%
0.2%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.2%
<0.1%70.9%
<0.1%70.7%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%70.4%
0.3%69.9%
0.3%69.7%
<0.1%69.3%
0.2%69.2%
0.3%68.7%
0.3%68.7%
<0.1%68.4%
<0.1%68.4%
<0.1%68.2%
0.6%67.1%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.2%
0.1%66.0%
<0.1%65.9%
<0.1%65.8%
0.1%65.4%
0.4%65.3%
0.1%64.9%
0.3%64.2%
0.3%63.7%
0.9%63.0%
0.1%62.7%
0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.9%
<0.1%60.6%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.3%
<0.1%52.4%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%35.1%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.1%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.5%
<0.1%24.0%
<0.1%23.3%
<0.1%23.2%
<0.1%22.9%
<0.1%21.6%
<0.1%20.5%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.6%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%18.9%
<0.1%18.9%
<0.1%18.6%
0.2%18.4%
<0.1%18.4%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.0%
0.2%17.9%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.5%
<0.1%17.1%
0.2%17.1%
0.1%16.8%
0.2%16.7%
0.1%16.4%
<0.1%16.2%
0.3%16.1%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.1%
0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.7%
0.1%14.5%
0.1%14.4%
0.2%14.3%
0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.0%
0.1%13.9%
0.1%13.9%
0.1%13.8%
0.2%13.6%
<0.1%12.8%
0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.3%
0.1%12.3%
0.1%12.2%
0.3%11.7%
0.4%11.7%
<0.1%11.5%
0.4%11.2%
0.3%11.1%
<0.1%11.0%
0.3%10.8%
0.4%10.7%
0.2%10.4%
1.1%10.4%
<0.1%10.4%
0.2%10.1%
0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.8%
0.2%9.2%
0.4%9.0%
0.2%8.9%
0.5%8.9%
0.4%8.9%
0.1%8.6%
0.1%8.3%
0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.4%
0.5%7.2%
0.4%6.8%
0.2%5.8%
0.5%5.4%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
23.3%
16.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%95.8%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%91.3%
<0.1%90.5%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%84.2%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.9%
<0.1%82.6%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.4%
<0.1%80.5%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.2%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.2%
<0.1%75.6%
<0.1%75.5%
0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.4%
<0.1%74.3%
<0.1%74.1%
<0.1%74.1%
<0.1%73.8%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.4%
<0.1%72.3%
<0.1%72.1%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.7%
0.2%70.5%
<0.1%70.4%
<0.1%70.4%
<0.1%70.3%
<0.1%69.0%
<0.1%67.0%
0.2%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.5%
<0.1%64.6%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%63.9%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.2%
<0.1%60.5%
<0.1%60.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.3%
<0.1%59.0%
<0.1%58.7%
0.2%58.5%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.4%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.5%
<0.1%29.4%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.5%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.1%
<0.1%25.9%
<0.1%25.9%
<0.1%25.5%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.0%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.5%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.1%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.3%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%21.0%
0.1%20.8%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.3%
<0.1%19.2%
0.1%19.1%
<0.1%19.0%
<0.1%18.5%
<0.1%18.4%
<0.1%18.0%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%17.7%
0.2%17.4%
<0.1%17.3%
0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.6%
0.2%16.2%
<0.1%16.1%
<0.1%15.9%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.7%
<0.1%15.5%
0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.3%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%15.0%
0.3%14.8%
<0.1%14.6%
<0.1%14.6%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.1%
0.1%14.0%
<0.1%13.6%
0.1%13.6%
0.2%13.5%
0.3%13.4%
0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.1%
0.3%12.9%
<0.1%12.9%
0.3%12.8%
<0.1%12.7%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.3%
0.1%12.2%
<0.1%12.1%
0.1%12.0%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.4%
<0.1%11.3%
<0.1%11.2%
0.1%11.2%
0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
0.4%11.1%
0.2%10.9%
0.1%10.6%
0.3%10.5%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.2%
<0.1%10.2%
<0.1%10.2%
<0.1%10.1%
0.3%10.1%
<0.1%10.0%
0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
0.8%9.9%
<0.1%9.6%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.5%
0.1%9.2%
0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.0%
0.3%8.6%
0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.1%
0.1%7.9%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.6%
0.2%7.4%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.4%
0.4%7.0%
<0.1%6.9%
0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.4%
0.3%6.0%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.3%
0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.9%
<0.1%4.9%
<0.1%4.9%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.6%
<0.1%4.5%
0.4%4.3%
0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%0.8%
0.1%0.5%
0.2%Data from 2025-08-22