Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
6.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | Win prob:46% | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:90% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:75% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:28% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:47% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:53% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:69% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:40% | |
| 11 | 11/07 | Win prob:79% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:40% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:83% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:30% |
Data from 2025-08-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.1% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 1.6% | 97.1% |
| 7-2 | 7.5% | 55.6% |
| 6-3 | 18.7% | 4.0% |
| 5-4 | 27.4% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 25.3% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 14.0% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 4.5% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.8% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-08-22
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2025-08-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 6.6% (-0.0%) | 6.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 6.4% (-0.2%) | 6.7% (+0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 6.8% • Scenario: 15.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 6.7% • Scenario: 56.2%
Data from 2025-08-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
97.6%
0.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.0%
<0.1%97.8%
0.1%96.5%
<0.1%96.3%
0.1%95.2%
<0.1%95.1%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
67.3%
3.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.6%
<0.1%97.8%
0.1%96.7%
<0.1%96.4%
0.1%96.3%
<0.1%95.0%
<0.1%92.7%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%76.2%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%72.2%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%68.4%
0.1%67.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.0%
<0.1%63.3%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.1%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%60.9%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.8%
0.1%57.8%
<0.1%57.4%
<0.1%56.8%
<0.1%56.5%
<0.1%53.8%
0.3%52.8%
0.2%50.4%
0.1%50.3%
0.1%50.3%
0.2%50.0%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.9%
<0.1%46.8%
0.2%Any 3 losses
27.3%
9.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.7%
<0.1%97.7%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%92.0%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.3%
<0.1%75.7%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.7%
<0.1%72.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.5%
<0.1%65.4%
<0.1%65.3%
0.1%64.7%
<0.1%64.5%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.8%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.3%
<0.1%58.7%
0.1%57.9%
0.1%57.7%
<0.1%56.7%
<0.1%56.2%
0.1%55.9%
<0.1%55.0%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.0%
0.2%53.8%
<0.1%53.6%
<0.1%53.4%
0.2%53.3%
<0.1%52.2%
<0.1%50.8%
<0.1%50.6%
0.2%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.7%
0.2%48.7%
<0.1%48.6%
<0.1%48.3%
0.4%47.8%
<0.1%47.6%
<0.1%47.5%
0.2%47.3%
<0.1%46.9%
<0.1%46.1%
0.2%45.5%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%43.3%
<0.1%42.2%
0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.3%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.3%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.6%
0.3%6.3%
<0.1%5.9%
0.2%5.7%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.5%
<0.1%5.4%
0.1%5.4%
0.1%5.3%
0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.1%
0.2%5.0%
<0.1%4.7%
0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.0%
0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.8%
0.5%3.7%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.1%
0.2%3.0%
<0.1%2.7%
0.3%2.7%
<0.1%2.6%
0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%1.9%
0.1%1.9%
0.1%1.9%
0.2%1.9%
0.2%1.7%
0.2%1.4%
0.4%1.3%
<0.1%1.1%
0.3%Any 4 losses
11.1%
9.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.9%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%60.9%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.0%
<0.1%57.7%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.3%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.0%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.2%
<0.1%54.1%
0.1%52.9%
<0.1%52.4%
<0.1%51.9%
<0.1%51.8%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.1%
<0.1%47.6%
<0.1%47.1%
<0.1%46.3%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%44.7%
<0.1%43.5%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.1%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.1%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.4%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.0%
<0.1%8.9%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.8%
<0.1%7.8%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.3%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.1%
0.2%5.9%
<0.1%5.8%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.2%
0.1%5.2%
0.2%5.0%
0.2%4.9%
<0.1%4.9%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.4%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
0.3%4.2%
0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.8%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
0.2%3.4%
0.5%3.3%
0.3%3.2%
0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.2%
0.4%3.2%
0.3%3.0%
<0.1%2.9%
0.2%2.8%
0.2%2.7%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.2%
0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.1%
0.1%2.0%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.9%
0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.8%
0.1%1.8%
0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.6%
0.3%1.6%
0.5%1.3%
0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.0%
0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%Data from 2025-08-22