Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
9.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | Win prob:52% | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:24% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:90% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:39% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:74% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:44% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:24% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:55% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:60% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:49% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:59% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:81% |
Data from 2025-08-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.2% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 2.3% | 98.8% |
| 7-2 | 9.4% | 63.8% |
| 6-3 | 20.7% | 5.8% |
| 5-4 | 27.7% | 0.0% |
| 4-5 | 22.9% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 12.2% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 3.8% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.7% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-08-22
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2025-08-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 9.8% (+0.1%) | 9.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 9.4% (-0.3%) | 9.9% (+0.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 10.1% • Scenario: 15.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 9.9% • Scenario: 56.2%
Data from 2025-08-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
98.3%
0.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.0%
<0.1%91.2%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
81.4%
2.2%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.6%
0.3%99.2%
0.1%98.9%
<0.1%98.3%
<0.1%96.8%
<0.1%96.3%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%95.6%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%79.2%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%75.8%
<0.1%74.4%
<0.1%73.0%
<0.1%71.9%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.0%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%68.2%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.4%
<0.1%64.7%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%60.4%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.5%
<0.1%54.0%
<0.1%53.6%
0.1%53.5%
<0.1%52.9%
<0.1%50.0%
0.1%43.8%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
52.4%
7.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.2%
0.1%99.1%
0.1%98.8%
0.2%98.6%
<0.1%98.3%
<0.1%96.5%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.6%
<0.1%80.8%
<0.1%80.7%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.1%
<0.1%78.4%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.3%
<0.1%76.2%
0.2%75.5%
0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.7%
<0.1%73.8%
<0.1%73.7%
<0.1%73.1%
<0.1%73.0%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.6%
<0.1%72.5%
<0.1%72.5%
<0.1%72.3%
<0.1%72.2%
<0.1%72.1%
0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.0%
0.1%70.6%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%68.4%
<0.1%67.6%
<0.1%67.5%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.2%
<0.1%65.4%
<0.1%64.7%
<0.1%63.9%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%63.1%
0.1%62.9%
0.2%62.7%
0.2%62.5%
<0.1%59.1%
<0.1%59.0%
0.1%55.7%
0.1%54.9%
0.3%53.8%
<0.1%53.3%
0.2%51.5%
0.4%51.3%
0.3%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.8%
<0.1%45.6%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%10.9%
<0.1%10.8%
<0.1%10.4%
0.1%10.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.8%
<0.1%9.6%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.6%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.0%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.1%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.8%
0.1%3.6%
0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.4%
0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%1.4%
0.1%Any 4 losses
22.2%
12.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.3%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%82.6%
<0.1%82.6%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%80.5%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.7%
<0.1%79.0%
<0.1%78.3%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%75.9%
<0.1%75.8%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%72.6%
<0.1%71.7%
<0.1%71.6%
0.2%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.4%
0.1%70.0%
<0.1%68.4%
0.2%68.4%
<0.1%68.1%
<0.1%67.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.4%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.8%
0.1%61.8%
<0.1%61.6%
0.3%61.2%
0.1%60.6%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.2%
0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.5%
<0.1%55.9%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.0%
<0.1%53.9%
0.4%53.5%
<0.1%51.2%
0.3%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.4%
0.1%47.4%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.2%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.7%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.7%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.5%
0.2%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.4%
<0.1%11.3%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.4%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.8%
<0.1%9.8%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.4%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.2%
<0.1%8.2%
0.2%8.2%
0.1%7.8%
0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.6%
0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.3%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.0%
0.3%6.0%
0.3%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.2%
<0.1%5.2%
<0.1%5.1%
0.3%5.1%
0.2%5.1%
<0.1%5.0%
0.1%4.9%
<0.1%4.8%
0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.6%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.4%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.1%
0.1%4.1%
0.2%4.0%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.8%
0.2%3.7%
0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.4%
<0.1%3.2%
0.3%2.9%
0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.5%
0.3%2.4%
0.2%2.3%
<0.1%2.2%
0.2%2.2%
0.5%2.1%
0.4%1.9%
0.2%1.2%
0.2%1.1%
<0.1%0.7%
0.1%Data from 2025-08-22