Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
9.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | Win prob:90% | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:97% | |
| 3 | 9/12 | Win prob:90% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:83% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:59% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:34% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:93% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:93% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:80% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:13% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:84% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:93% |
Data from 2025-08-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 1.2% | 99.2% |
| 8-1 | 11.9% | 55.5% |
| 7-2 | 31.9% | 4.8% |
| 6-3 | 33.4% | 0.0% |
| 5-4 | 16.4% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 4.5% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0.7% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-08-22
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-08-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|
Data from 2025-08-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
99.0%
0.9%Any 1 loss
56.5%
9.6%
100.0%
0.1%
100.0%
0.1%
96.5%
<0.1%
82.5%
0.2%
75.6%
0.2%
72.7%
<0.1%
70.3%
0.6%
70.3%
<0.1%
69.5%
0.2%
64.0%
1.8%
58.6%
<0.1%
48.7%
6.1%Any 2 losses
9.5%
27.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%82.6%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%76.3%
<0.1%73.0%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%67.9%
0.2%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.1%
0.2%60.7%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%52.6%
0.2%50.7%
0.7%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.6%
0.7%44.4%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%27.8%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%21.7%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%19.6%
<0.1%19.5%
<0.1%18.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.3%
0.2%13.0%
<0.1%12.3%
<0.1%10.3%
0.1%10.2%
0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.2%
0.1%8.5%
0.4%8.1%
0.1%8.1%
0.5%7.7%
0.5%7.4%
1.6%7.1%
<0.1%6.5%
0.4%6.1%
4.2%5.8%
1.3%5.6%
1.2%5.5%
1.2%5.4%
0.4%5.1%
0.4%4.0%
0.1%3.6%
<0.1%2.6%
11.7%Any 3 losses
6.3%
6.6%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%68.2%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%52.9%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%46.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.4%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.9%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.3%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.3%
0.2%7.0%
0.1%6.7%
0.2%6.7%
<0.1%6.6%
0.1%6.5%
0.1%6.4%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%6.0%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.8%
0.4%5.5%
<0.1%5.3%
0.5%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.3%
0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.0%
0.1%3.4%
1.3%2.5%
<0.1%2.4%
0.4%2.4%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%2.0%
1.4%1.9%
<0.1%0.7%
0.1%Any 4 losses
5.9%
0.4%50.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%1.8%
0.2%Data from 2025-08-22