Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | Win prob:56% | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:88% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:90% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:25% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:73% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:44% | |
| 8 | 10/17 | Win prob:29% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:73% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:18% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:59% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:3% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:35% |
Data from 2025-08-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0% | 0% |
| 8-1 | 0.1% | 71.7% |
| 7-2 | 1.1% | 9.2% |
| 6-3 | 5.8% | 0.1% |
| 5-4 | 16.8% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 28.5% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 27.8% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 15.3% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 4.3% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-08-22
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2025-08-22
This Week's Impact
| Game |
|---|
Data from 2025-08-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Any 1 loss
67.7%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%67.7%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
14.2%
0.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%56.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%13.5%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.9%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%4.2%
0.1%Any 3 losses
8.9%
0.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.6%
<0.1%14.5%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.0%
0.1%1.1%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
12.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%Data from 2025-08-22