Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
56.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W45-7 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W28-6 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W44-41 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L21-24 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W35-14 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W20-10 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W43-35 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:91% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:94% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:70% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:99% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:92% |
Data from 2025-10-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 59.8% | 92.0% |
| 6-2 | 35.4% | 3.8% |
| 5-3 | 4.6% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 0.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 61.7% (+5.3%) | 4.5% (-51.9%) | |
| 56.3% (-0.1%) | 56.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 56.6% (+0.2%) | 56.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 58.0% (+1.6%) | 56.2% (-0.2%) | |
| 57.5% (+1.1%) | 56.0% (-0.4%) | |
| 56.6% (+0.2%) | 56.3% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 70.0% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 61.7% • Scenario: 90.7%
Data from 2025-10-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
92.1%
54.4%Any 1 loss
16.3%
37.6%91.8%
4.8%91.3%
0.6%7.0%
5.6%4.8%
3.3%2.9%
23.3%Any 2 losses
4.9%
3.2%90.5%
<0.1%6.6%
0.3%5.5%
<0.1%5.4%
0.5%3.3%
2.1%2.9%
<0.1%1.3%
0.2%6.5%
<0.1%Data from 2025-10-26
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-26