Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
35.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | W45-17 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L19-45 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L27-34 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W45-33 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W38-3 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W45-21 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | L18-27 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | W46-45 | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:53% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:64% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:78% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:77% |
Data from 2025-11-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 37.6% | 86.0% |
| 6-2 | 44.2% | 6.1% |
| 5-3 | 16.3% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 1.9% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 34.3% (-0.8%) | 35.3% (+0.2%) | |
| 35.3% (+0.2%) | 34.8% (-0.3%) | |
| 33.7% (-1.3%) | 35.5% (+0.5%) | |
| 45.2% (+10.2%) | 34.0% (-1.1%) | |
| 38.7% (+3.7%) | 33.6% (-1.4%) | |
| 34.7% (-0.4%) | 38.2% (+3.1%) | |
| 38.7% (+3.7%) | 34.9% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
UConn
Stanford
California
Boston College
SyracuseCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Wake ForestCCG: 38.7% • Scenario: 27.7%
Data from 2025-11-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
86.1%
20.0%Any 1 loss
40.4%
40.9%86.0%
17.5%9.3%
6.1%
8.9%
5.8%
3.2%
11.4%Data from 2025-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-02