Atlantic Coast Conference

Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-11-02

Atlantic Coast ConferenceConference Standings

T1Georgia TechGT5-18-144.7%
T1VirginiaUVA5-18-139.7%
T1PittsburghPITT5-17-211.5%
T4DukeDUKE4-15-335.0%
T4LouisvilleLOU4-17-134.6%
T4SMUSMU4-16-330.3%
T7NC StateNCSU3-35-4-
T7Miami FLMIA2-26-24.1%
T9CaliforniaCAL2-35-4-
T9Virginia TechVT2-33-6-
T9Wake ForestWAKE2-35-3-
T12ClemsonCLEM2-43-5-
T12StanfordSTAN2-43-6-
14North CarolinaUNC1-33-5-
15Florida StFSU1-44-4-
16SyracuseSYR1-53-6-
17Boston CollegeBC0-51-8-

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely Atlantic Coast Conference CCG Matchups

114.1%
DukeDUKE
vs
GTGeorgia Tech
212.4%
LouisvilleLOU
vs
UVAVirginia
311.6%
Georgia TechGT
vs
UVAVirginia
49.9%
Georgia TechGT
vs
LOULouisville
59.1%
SMUSMU
vs
UVAVirginia
68.4%
Georgia TechGT
vs
SMUSMU
78.1%
DukeDUKE
vs
SMUSMU
86.0%
DukeDUKE
vs
LOULouisville
93.6%
DukeDUKE
vs
UVAVirginia
103.4%
LouisvilleLOU
vs
PITTPittsburgh
112.7%
PittsburghPITT
vs
SMUSMU
122.6%
DukeDUKE
vs
PITTPittsburgh
132.4%
PittsburghPITT
vs
UVAVirginia
141.8%
LouisvilleLOU
vs
MIAMiami FL
151.1%
LouisvilleLOU
vs
SMUSMU

Data from 2025-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Atlantic Coast ConferenceCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7Week 8Week 9Week 10Week 11

Data from 2025-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on Atlantic Coast Conference CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 44.7%
Game
Georgia TechCCG OddsAway
Georgia TechCCG OddsHome
Florida StFSU@ClemsonCLEM
44.7%
(+0.0%)		44.7%
(+0.0%)
DukeDUKE@UConnCONN
44.7%
(+0.0%)		44.6%
(-0.0%)
StanfordSTAN@North CarolinaUNC
44.5%
(-0.1%)		44.7%
(+0.0%)
CaliforniaCAL@LouisvilleLOU
48.3%
(+3.6%)		44.3%
(-0.4%)
Wake ForestWAKE@VirginiaUVA
47.9%
(+3.3%)		43.4%
(-1.3%)
SMUSMU@Boston CollegeBC
44.6%
(-0.1%)		45.4%
(+0.7%)
SyracuseSYR@Miami FLMIA
46.2%
(+1.5%)		44.6%
(-0.1%)

Best Winner Combination for Georgia Tech

DukeDukeCaliforniaCaliforniaWake ForestWake ForestBoston CollegeBoston CollegeSyracuseSyracuse

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Georgia Tech

Wake ForestWake Forest

CCG: 47.9% • Scenario: 27.7%

Data from 2025-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Atlantic Coast ConferenceCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team8-17-17-26-26-3Overall
Georgia TechGT-94.1%-2.3%-44.7%
VirginiaUVA100%-40.0%-<0.1%39.7%
DukeDUKE-86.0%-6.1%-35.0%
LouisvilleLOU-99.8%-20.5%-34.6%
SMUSMU-71.6%-1.0%-30.3%
PittsburghPITT-75.5%-1.5%-11.5%
Miami FLMIA---7.4%-4.1%
Boston CollegeBC------
CaliforniaCAL------
ClemsonCLEM------
Florida StFSU------
NC StateNCSU------
North CarolinaUNC------
StanfordSTAN------
SyracuseSYR------
Virginia TechVT------
Wake ForestWAKE------

Data from 2025-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Atlantic Coast ConferenceFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team8-17-17-26-26-35-35-44-44-53-53-62-61-70-8Avg Wins
VirginiaUVA(5-1)20.3%0.0%48.6%0.0%26.9%0.0%4.2%-------6.9
Georgia TechGT(5-1)-46.3%0.0%46.7%0.0%7.0%--------6.4
SMUSMU(4-1)-41.7%0.0%46.0%0.0%11.6%0.0%0.8%------6.3
DukeDUKE(4-1)-37.6%0.0%44.2%0.0%16.3%0.0%1.9%------6.2
LouisvilleLOU(4-1)-24.7%0.0%49.0%0.0%24.4%0.0%2.0%------6.0
PittsburghPITT(5-1)-14.3%0.0%48.4%0.0%37.4%--------5.8
Miami FLMIA(2-2)---55.2%0.0%37.7%0.0%6.7%0.0%0.4%0.0%0.0%--5.5
NC StateNCSU(3-3)----2.1%0.0%34.3%0.0%49.4%0.0%14.2%---4.2
Wake ForestWAKE(2-3)-----4.8%0.0%29.7%0.0%50.7%0.0%14.8%--3.2
ClemsonCLEM(2-4)-------29.7%0.0%56.7%0.0%13.6%--3.2
CaliforniaCAL(2-3)-----1.0%0.0%15.6%0.0%56.6%0.0%26.8%--2.9
StanfordSTAN(2-4)-------9.8%0.0%43.6%0.0%46.5%--2.6
Virginia TechVT(2-3)-----0.7%0.0%9.7%0.0%40.0%0.0%49.6%--2.6
North CarolinaUNC(1-3)-----1.2%0.0%11.3%0.0%35.2%0.0%41.0%11.2%-2.5
Florida StFSU(1-4)-------8.5%0.0%41.1%0.0%40.4%9.9%-2.5
SyracuseSYR(1-5)---------2.6%0.0%64.8%32.6%-1.7
Boston CollegeBC(0-5)---------0.5%0.0%8.9%40.4%50.2%0.6

Data from 2025-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com