Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
30.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W42-13 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L45-48 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W28-10 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L24-35 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W31-18 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W34-10 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W35-24 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | L12-13 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | W26-20 | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:90% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:56% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:83% |
Data from 2025-11-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 41.7% | 71.6% |
| 6-2 | 46.0% | 1.0% |
| 5-3 | 11.6% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 0.8% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 29.5% (-0.9%) | 30.6% (+0.2%) | |
| 30.2% (-0.1%) | 30.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 29.9% (-0.5%) | 30.5% (+0.2%) | |
| 31.5% (+1.2%) | 30.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 35.0% (+4.7%) | 28.6% (-1.8%) | |
| 33.8% (+3.4%) | 1.1% (-29.2%) | |
| 30.5% (+0.1%) | 30.3% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Florida State
UConn
Stanford
California
Wake Forest
SyracuseCCG: 75.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
SMUCCG: 33.8% • Scenario: 89.5%
Data from 2025-11-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
71.6%
41.7%Any 1 loss
2.8%
13.5%3.0%
8.6%
2.4%
4.9%Data from 2025-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-02