Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
39.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W48-7 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L31-35 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W55-16 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W48-20 | |
| 5 | 9/26 | W46-38 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W30-27 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W22-20 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W17-16 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | W31-21 | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:72% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:36% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:77% |
Data from 2025-11-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 20.3% | 100.0% |
| 7-2 | 48.6% | 40.0% |
| 6-3 | 26.9% | 0.0% |
| 5-4 | 4.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 39.7% (+0.0%) | 39.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 39.5% (-0.2%) | 39.9% (+0.2%) | |
| 39.9% (+0.2%) | 39.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 46.1% (+6.4%) | 39.1% (-0.7%) | |
| 16.1% (-23.7%) | 48.8% (+9.1%) | |
| 38.5% (-1.2%) | 50.2% (+10.5%) | |
| 39.3% (-0.4%) | 39.8% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Florida State
Stanford
California
Boston College
SyracuseCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
VirginiaCCG: 48.8% • Scenario: 72.3%
Data from 2025-11-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
20.3%Any 1 loss
39.9%
48.6%
59.6%
6.2%
59.1%
7.5%
32.3%
34.9%Data from 2025-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-02