Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
11.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W61-9 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W45-17 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L24-31 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L27-34 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W48-7 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W34-31 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W30-13 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W53-34 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | W35-20 | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:6% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:45% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:31% |
Data from 2025-11-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 14.3% | 75.5% |
| 6-2 | 48.4% | 1.5% |
| 5-3 | 37.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 12.4% (+0.9%) | 11.2% (-0.3%) | |
| 11.5% (+0.0%) | 11.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 12.6% (+1.1%) | 11.1% (-0.4%) | |
| 12.1% (+0.6%) | 11.4% (-0.1%) | |
| 14.5% (+3.0%) | 10.4% (-1.1%) | |
| 11.0% (-0.5%) | 15.5% (+4.0%) | |
| 12.7% (+1.2%) | 11.5% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Florida State
UConn
Stanford
California
Wake Forest
SyracuseCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Wake ForestCCG: 14.5% • Scenario: 27.7%
Data from 2025-11-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
76.5%
0.9%Any 1 loss
61.5%
16.4%
75.4%
13.3%
2.0%
2.0%
0.5%
1.1%Any 2 losses
1.5%
45.3%1.9%
29.1%0.8%
16.2%Data from 2025-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-02