Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
34.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W51-17 | |
| 2 | 9/05 | W28-14 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W40-17 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W34-27 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | L27-30 | |
| 8 | 10/17 | W24-21 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W38-24 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | W28-16 | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:91% | |
| 12 | 11/14 | Win prob:62% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:44% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:84% |
Data from 2025-11-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 24.7% | 99.8% |
| 6-2 | 49.0% | 20.5% |
| 5-3 | 24.4% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 2.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 33.7% (-0.9%) | 34.9% (+0.3%) | |
| 34.7% (+0.1%) | 34.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 34.3% (-0.3%) | 34.8% (+0.1%) | |
| 10.1% (-24.6%) | 37.2% (+2.5%) | |
| 39.3% (+4.7%) | 32.9% (-1.8%) | |
| 33.7% (-0.9%) | 42.6% (+7.9%) | |
| 32.7% (-2.0%) | 34.7% (+0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Florida State
UConn
California
Wake Forest
Boston College
SyracuseCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
LouisvilleCCG: 37.2% • Scenario: 90.7%
Data from 2025-11-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
99.8%
20.7%Any 1 loss
27.5%
45.2%
99.8%
4.0%37.4%
2.2%
34.3%
12.4%
12.7%
26.6%Any 2 losses
20.2%
7.8%33.6%
2.5%31.1%
0.4%12.8%
5.0%Data from 2025-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-02