Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
21.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | L17-20 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W34-20 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W70-0 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W37-34 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W38-30 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W20-11 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W49-17 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W41-20 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | L14-45 | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:79% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:47% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:35% |
Data from 2025-11-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 12.8% | 100.0% |
| 7-2 | 41.9% | 19.8% |
| 6-3 | 38.0% | 0.0% |
| 5-4 | 7.3% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 25.3% (+4.1%) | 19.7% (-1.4%) | |
| 21.1% (+0.0%) | 21.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 22.1% (+0.9%) | 20.7% (-0.4%) | |
| 21.1% (-0.0%) | 21.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 20.2% (-0.9%) | 21.5% (+0.4%) |
Best Winner Combination for
BYU
Arizona
Iowa State
West Virginia
UCFCCG: 29.3% • Scenario: 0.7%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
BYUCCG: 25.3% • Scenario: 25.5%
Data from 2025-11-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
12.8%Any 1 loss
19.8%
41.9%31.9%
3.5%
26.5%
24.1%5.7%
14.4%Data from 2025-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-02