Big XII Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-11-02
Conference Standings
| 1 |  BYUBYU | 5-0 | 8-0 | 54.2% | |
| T2 |  Texas TechTTU | 5-1 | 8-1 | 79.2% | |
| T2 |  CincinnatiCIN | 5-1 | 7-2 | 21.1% | |
| T4 |  UtahUTAH | 4-2 | 7-2 | 26.5% | |
| T4 |  Arizona StateASU | 4-2 | 6-3 | 11.2% | |
| T4 |  HoustonHOU | 4-2 | 7-2 | 0.6% | |
| 7 |  TCUTCU | 3-2 | 6-2 | 7.2% | |
| T8 |  BaylorBAY | 3-3 | 5-4 | <0.1% | |
| T8 |  Kansas StateKSU | 3-3 | 4-5 | <0.1% | |
| T8 |  KansasKU | 3-3 | 5-4 | - | |
| 11 |  ArizonaARIZ | 2-3 | 5-3 | - | |
| 12 |  Iowa StateISU | 2-4 | 5-4 | - | |
| 13 |  UCFUCF | 1-4 | 4-4 | - | |
| T14 |  ColoradoCOLO | 1-5 | 3-6 | - | |
| T14 |  West VirginiaWVU | 1-5 | 3-6 | - | |
| 16 |  Oklahoma StateOKST | 0-6 | 1-8 | - | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-11-02
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2025-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-02
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 79.2%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 32.7% (-46.5%) | 95.1% (+15.9%) | |
| 79.4% (+0.2%) | 79.0% (-0.2%) | |
| 80.8% (+1.6%) | 78.5% (-0.7%) | |
| 79.0% (-0.1%) | 79.5% (+0.3%) | |
| 78.8% (-0.3%) | 79.3% (+0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Texas TechKansasIowa StateColoradoHoustonCCG: 96.0% • Scenario: 2.3%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Texas TechCCG: 95.1% • Scenario: 74.5%
Data from 2025-11-02
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 9-0 | 8-1 | 7-2 | 6-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas TechTTU | - | 100% | 56.1% | 1.2% | 79.2% |
| BYUBYU | 100% | 100% | 48.3% | 1.1% | 54.2% |
| UtahUTAH | - | - | 48.8% | 2.8% | 26.5% |
| CincinnatiCIN | - | 100% | 19.8% | <0.1% | 21.1% |
| Arizona StateASU | - | - | 28.3% | 0.2% | 11.2% |
| TCUTCU | - | - | 56.6% | 0.5% | 7.2% |
| HoustonHOU | - | - | 16.7% | <0.1% | 0.6% |
| BaylorBAY | - | - | - | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| Kansas StateKSU | - | - | - | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| ArizonaARIZ | - | - | - | 0.3% | - |
| ColoradoCOLO | - | - | - | - | - |
| Iowa StateISU | - | - | - | - | - |
| KansasKU | - | - | - | <0.1% | - |
| Oklahoma StateOKST | - | - | - | - | - |
| UCFUCF | - | - | - | - | - |
| West VirginiaWVU | - | - | - | - | - |
Data from 2025-11-02
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 9-0 | 8-1 | 7-2 | 6-3 | 5-4 | 4-5 | 3-6 | 2-7 | 1-8 | 0-9 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas TechTTU(5-1) | - | 59.6% | 34.9% | 5.4% | 0.2% | - | - | - | - | - | 7.5 |
| BYUBYU(5-0) | 6.0% | 28.7% | 39.8% | 21.6% | 3.9% | - | - | - | - | - | 7.1 |
| CincinnatiCIN(5-1) | - | 12.8% | 41.9% | 38.0% | 7.3% | - | - | - | - | - | 6.6 |
| UtahUTAH(4-2) | - | - | 52.0% | 38.3% | 9.0% | 0.7% | - | - | - | - | 6.4 |
| Arizona StateASU(4-2) | - | - | 39.1% | 45.6% | 14.1% | 1.1% | - | - | - | - | 6.2 |
| TCUTCU(3-2) | - | - | 12.4% | 37.1% | 34.9% | 13.6% | 1.9% | - | - | - | 5.4 |
| Kansas StateKSU(3-3) | - | - | - | 21.1% | 66.8% | 11.9% | 0.2% | - | - | - | 5.1 |
| HoustonHOU(4-2) | - | - | 3.3% | 21.0% | 44.5% | 31.1% | - | - | - | - | 5.0 |
| BaylorBAY(3-3) | - | - | - | 5.3% | 35.0% | 44.6% | 15.1% | - | - | - | 4.3 |
| KansasKU(3-3) | - | - | - | 3.6% | 26.1% | 47.1% | 23.2% | - | - | - | 4.1 |
| Iowa StateISU(2-4) | - | - | - | - | 17.0% | 53.3% | 28.4% | 1.4% | - | - | 3.9 |
| ArizonaARIZ(2-3) | - | - | - | 1.1% | 10.3% | 31.8% | 39.9% | 17.0% | - | - | 3.4 |
| UCFUCF(1-4) | - | - | - | - | 3.1% | 25.9% | 52.8% | 17.8% | 0.4% | - | 3.1 |
| ColoradoCOLO(1-5) | - | - | - | - | - | 4.1% | 32.4% | 48.1% | 15.4% | - | 2.3 |
| West VirginiaWVU(1-5) | - | - | - | - | - | 0.2% | 5.0% | 36.6% | 58.3% | - | 1.5 |
| Oklahoma StateOKST(0-6) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0% | 0.3% | 9.5% | 90.2% | 0.1 |
Data from 2025-11-02