Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
7.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/01 | W48-14 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W42-21 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W35-24 | |
| 5 | 9/26 | L24-27 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W35-21 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | L28-41 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W42-36 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W23-17 | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:71% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:39% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:69% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:65% |
Data from 2025-11-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2 | 12.4% | 56.6% |
| 6-3 | 37.1% | 0.5% |
| 5-4 | 34.9% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 13.6% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 1.9% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 8.0% (+0.7%) | 7.0% (-0.3%) | |
| 7.3% (+0.1%) | 7.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 0.2% (-7.0%) | 10.1% (+2.8%) | |
| 7.3% (+0.1%) | 7.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 7.6% (+0.4%) | 7.1% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
BYU
KansasTCU
West Virginia
HoustonCCG: 12.8% • Scenario: 0.9%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
TCUCCG: 10.1% • Scenario: 71.4%
Data from 2025-11-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
56.6%
12.4%Any 1 loss
1.3%
10.9%1.4%
5.8%
1.1%
5.1%Data from 2025-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-02