Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
54.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W69-0 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W27-3 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W34-13 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W24-21 | |
| 6 | 10/03 | W38-24 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W33-27 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W24-21 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W41-27 | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:25% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:61% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:53% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:72% |
Data from 2025-11-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 6.0% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 28.7% | 100.0% |
| 7-2 | 39.8% | 48.3% |
| 6-3 | 21.6% | 1.1% |
| 5-4 | 3.9% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 89.1% (+34.9%) | 42.2% (-12.0%) | |
| 53.5% (-0.7%) | 55.0% (+0.9%) | |
| 56.9% (+2.7%) | 53.1% (-1.1%) | |
| 54.2% (-0.0%) | 54.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 52.9% (-1.3%) | 54.7% (+0.5%) |
Best Winner Combination for
BYU
Kansas
Iowa State
Colorado
UCFCCG: 91.2% • Scenario: 2.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
BYUCCG: 89.1% • Scenario: 25.5%
Data from 2025-11-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
6.0%Any 1 loss
100.0%
28.7%Any 2 losses
48.3%
39.8%
91.1%
1.4%
80.8%
3.3%66.3%
2.1%
63.1%
6.8%48.9%
11.0%27.7%
15.2%Any 3 losses
1.8%
11.8%2.4%
4.4%1.7%
1.4%1.3%
6.0%Data from 2025-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-02