Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
11.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L7-14 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W38-7 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W27-10 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W55-0 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | L21-29 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W23-6 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W16-13 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W45-38 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | W34-31 | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:28% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:90% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:67% |
Data from 2025-11-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 17.0% | 68.9% |
| 6-2 | 53.2% | 0.4% |
| 5-3 | 27.4% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 2.5% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-02
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 11.7% (-0.2%) | 12.0% (+0.1%) | |
| 11.9% (+0.1%) | 11.8% (-0.1%) | |
| 11.8% (-0.1%) | 13.1% (+1.2%) | |
| 11.9% (+0.1%) | 11.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 7.2% (-4.7%) | 17.3% (+5.4%) | |
| 12.6% (+0.7%) | 11.8% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 50.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 17.3% • Scenario: 46.4%
Data from 2025-11-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
68.9%
17.0%Any 1 loss
1.0%
10.2%3.0%
1.9%0.6%
8.3%Data from 2025-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-02