Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
89.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L17-31 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W73-0 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W38-14 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W24-21 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W30-14 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W27-24 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W37-20 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W29-22 | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:88% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:81% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:90% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:79% |
Data from 2025-11-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 55.9% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 35.9% | 91.0% |
| 6-2 | 7.7% | 6.9% |
| 5-3 | 0.5% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 88.3% (-0.8%) | 89.5% (+0.4%) | |
| 89.1% (-0.0%) | 89.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 89.0% (-0.1%) | 90.6% (+1.5%) | |
| 89.2% (+0.1%) | 89.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 87.0% (-2.1%) | 91.6% (+2.5%) | |
| 54.0% (-35.1%) | 94.2% (+5.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Auburn
Kentucky
Mississippi State
Ole Miss
Texas A&MAlabamaCCG: 97.4% • Scenario: 0.4%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
AlabamaCCG: 94.2% • Scenario: 87.3%
Data from 2025-11-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
50.3%Any 1 loss
92.4%
37.9%
100.0%
5.7%
97.9%
11.6%90.3%
13.4%
81.5%
7.2%Any 2 losses
36.0%
10.5%98.6%
1.3%90.2%
1.5%80.8%
0.8%8.3%
1.9%6.8%
1.8%6.2%
3.2%Any 3 losses
6.2%
0.8%10.1%
0.2%5.7%
0.4%3.2%
0.2%Data from 2025-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-02