SEC

SEC Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-11-02

SECConference Standings

T1AlabamaALA5-07-189.1%
T1Texas A&MTA&M5-08-026.3%
T3GeorgiaUGA5-17-159.6%
T3MississippiMISS5-18-112.8%
5TexasTEX4-17-211.9%
T6OklahomaOU3-27-20.2%
T6VanderbiltVAN3-27-2<0.1%
T8TennesseeTENN3-36-3-
T8MissouriMIZ2-26-2<0.1%
T10FloridaFLA2-33-5-
T10LSULSU2-35-3-
12Mississippi StMSST1-45-4-
T13AuburnAUB1-54-5-
T13KentuckyUK1-53-5-
15South CarolinaSC1-63-6-
16ArkansasARK0-52-7-

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely SEC CCG Matchups

151.6%
AlabamaALA
vs
UGAGeorgia
220.4%
AlabamaALA
vs
TA&MTexas A&M
310.7%
AlabamaALA
vs
TEXTexas
46.2%
AlabamaALA
vs
MISSMississippi
54.0%
GeorgiaUGA
vs
MISSMississippi
63.8%
GeorgiaUGA
vs
TA&MTexas A&M
71.8%
MississippiMISS
vs
TA&MTexas A&M
80.8%
MississippiMISS
vs
TEXTexas
90.3%
TexasTEX
vs
TA&MTexas A&M
10<0.1%
GeorgiaUGA
vs
TEXTexas
11<0.1%
MississippiMISS
vs
OUOklahoma
12<0.1%
GeorgiaUGA
vs
OUOklahoma
13<0.1%
OklahomaOU
vs
TEXTexas
14<0.1%
AlabamaALA
vs
OUOklahoma
15<0.1%
OklahomaOU
vs
TA&MTexas A&M

Data from 2025-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

SECCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7Week 8Week 9Week 10Week 11

Data from 2025-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on SEC CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 89.1%
Game
AlabamaCCG OddsAway
AlabamaCCG OddsHome
AuburnAUB@VanderbiltVAN
88.3%
(-0.8%)		89.5%
(+0.4%)
FloridaFLA@KentuckyUK
89.1%
(-0.0%)		89.1%
(+0.1%)
GeorgiaUGA@Mississippi StMSST
89.0%
(-0.1%)		90.6%
(+1.5%)
The CitadelCIT@MississippiMISS
89.2%
(+0.1%)		89.1%
(-0.0%)
Texas A&MTA&M@MissouriMIZ
87.0%
(-2.1%)		91.6%
(+2.5%)
LSULSU@AlabamaALA
54.0%
(-35.1%)		94.2%
(+5.1%)

Best Winner Combination for Alabama

AuburnAuburnKentuckyKentuckyMississippi StMississippi StateMississippiOle MissTexas A&MTexas A&MAlabamaAlabama

CCG: 97.4% • Scenario: 0.4%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Alabama

AlabamaAlabama

CCG: 94.2% • Scenario: 87.3%

Data from 2025-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

SECCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team8-07-16-2Overall
AlabamaALA100%91.0%6.9%89.1%
GeorgiaUGA-87.8%1.4%59.6%
Texas A&MTA&M100%25.1%0.8%26.3%
MississippiMISS-15.8%0.1%12.8%
TexasTEX-68.9%0.4%11.9%
OklahomaOU--3.0%0.2%
MissouriMIZ--0.2%<0.1%
VanderbiltVAN--0.1%<0.1%
ArkansasARK----
AuburnAUB----
FloridaFLA----
KentuckyUK----
LSULSU----
Mississippi StMSST----
South CarolinaSC----
TennesseeTENN----

Data from 2025-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

SECFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team8-07-16-25-34-43-52-61-70-8Avg Wins
AlabamaALA(5-0)55.9%35.9%7.7%0.5%-----7.5
MississippiMISS(5-1)-81.3%17.8%1.0%-----6.8
Texas A&MTA&M(5-0)14.7%45.4%34.5%5.4%-----6.7
GeorgiaUGA(5-1)-67.3%30.9%1.7%-----6.7
TexasTEX(4-1)-17.0%53.2%27.4%2.5%----5.8
VanderbiltVAN(3-2)--19.6%51.1%26.3%3.0%---4.9
OklahomaOU(3-2)--7.7%41.3%40.7%10.3%---4.5
MissouriMIZ(2-2)--11.3%36.0%37.4%13.9%1.4%--4.4
TennesseeTENN(3-3)---45.4%43.9%10.7%---4.3
LSULSU(2-3)---2.7%26.1%52.6%18.7%--3.1
FloridaFLA(2-3)---2.0%22.7%51.1%24.3%--3.0
AuburnAUB(1-5)-----6.9%39.8%53.2%-1.5
KentuckyUK(1-5)-----5.7%42.0%52.3%-1.5
Mississippi StMSST(1-4)----<0.1%2.5%24.1%73.3%-1.3
South CarolinaSC(1-6)------17.4%82.6%-1.2
ArkansasARK(0-5)-----1.0%13.6%43.7%41.7%0.7

Data from 2025-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com