Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
52.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | W45-17 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L19-45 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L27-34 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W45-33 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W38-3 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W45-21 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | L18-27 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | W46-45 | |
| 11 | 11/08 | L34-37 | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:64% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:74% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:85% |
Data from 2025-11-09
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 39.7% | 100.0% |
| 6-2 | 44.1% | 30.0% |
| 5-3 | 14.8% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 1.5% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-09
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-09
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 51.5% (-1.4%) | 57.7% (+4.8%) | |
| 52.9% (+0.0%) | 52.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 58.8% (+5.9%) | 49.3% (-3.5%) | |
| 52.6% (-0.3%) | 52.9% (+0.1%) | |
| 52.8% (-0.0%) | 53.3% (+0.4%) | |
| 52.9% (+0.0%) | 52.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 9.6% (-43.3%) | 77.6% (+24.8%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Boston College
NC State
Virginia Tech
Pittsburgh
North CarolinaDukeCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
DukeCCG: 77.6% • Scenario: 63.6%
Data from 2025-11-09
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
39.7%Data from 2025-11-09
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-09