Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
14.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W51-17 | |
| 2 | 9/05 | W28-14 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W40-17 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W34-27 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | L27-30 | |
| 8 | 10/17 | W24-21 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W38-24 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | W28-16 | |
| 11 | 11/08 | L26-29 | |
| 12 | 11/14 | Win prob:63% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:42% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:81% |
Data from 2025-11-09
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 25.9% | 56.6% |
| 5-3 | 52.0% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 22.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-09
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-09
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 12.6% (-2.1%) | 22.1% (+7.4%) | |
| 13.4% (-1.3%) | 14.8% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.0% (-14.7%) | 23.6% (+8.9%) | |
| 15.7% (+1.0%) | 14.4% (-0.2%) | |
| 14.7% (+0.0%) | 14.3% (-0.4%) | |
| 14.7% (-0.0%) | 14.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 14.7% (+0.0%) | 14.7% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Boston College
NC StateLouisville
Virginia Tech
Pittsburgh
North Carolina
DukeCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
LouisvilleCCG: 23.6% • Scenario: 62.3%
Data from 2025-11-09
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
56.6%
21.1%
56.8%
4.9%Data from 2025-11-09
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-09