Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
15.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W61-9 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W45-17 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L24-31 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L27-34 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W48-7 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W34-31 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W30-13 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W53-34 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | W35-20 | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:8% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:50% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:33% |
Data from 2025-11-09
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 16.4% | 80.8% |
| 6-2 | 50.1% | 4.1% |
| 5-3 | 33.5% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-09
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-09
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 15.0% (-0.3%) | 16.4% (+1.1%) | |
| 21.5% (+6.2%) | 14.8% (-0.6%) | |
| 16.3% (+1.0%) | 14.8% (-0.6%) | |
| 14.6% (-0.7%) | 15.5% (+0.2%) | |
| 15.3% (-0.0%) | 15.5% (+0.2%) | |
| 15.5% (+0.2%) | 15.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 18.3% (+2.9%) | 13.7% (-1.7%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Boston College
NC State
Clemson
Virginia TechPittsburgh
North Carolina
VirginiaCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
VirginiaCCG: 18.3% • Scenario: 36.4%
Data from 2025-11-09
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
80.9%
1.3%Any 1 loss
64.8%
19.1%
80.8%
15.1%
3.5%
1.3%
3.4%
2.6%Any 2 losses
4.2%
46.1%4.8%
31.0%2.8%
15.1%Data from 2025-11-09
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-09