Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/01 | W48-14 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W42-21 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W35-24 | |
| 5 | 9/26 | L24-27 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W35-21 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | L28-41 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W42-36 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W23-17 | |
| 11 | 11/08 | L17-20 | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:39% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:74% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:72% |
Data from 2025-11-09
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-3 | 20.8% | 0.6% |
| 5-4 | 47.6% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 27.1% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 4.5% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-09
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-09
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.2% (+0.1%) | 0.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 0.4% (+0.2%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (+0.3%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.1%) | 0.5% (+0.4%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.2%) | 0.0% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Arizona
UCF
Oklahoma State
Arizona State
BaylorTCUCCG: 20.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
BaylorTCUCCG: 1.2% • Scenario: 6.9%
Data from 2025-11-09
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
0.6%
20.8%Data from 2025-11-09
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-09