Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W42-10 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W55-7 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L3-42 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L24-45 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:23% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:17% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:49% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:67% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:20% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:7% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:11% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:8% |
Data from 2025-09-21
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0% | 0% |
| 7-1 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 6-2 | 0.1% | 38.5% |
| 5-3 | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| 4-4 | 7.4% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 22.2% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 36.0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 26.4% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 6.5% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-21
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-21
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Memphis
Army
North Texas
Tulane
RiceCCG: 0.1% • Scenario: 3.8%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Memphis
South AlabamaTulane
NavyCCG: 0.1% • Scenario: 26.4%
Data from 2025-09-21
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Any 1 loss
<0.1%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
40.0%
0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%35.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%Data from 2025-09-21
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-21