Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
8.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | L27-30 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W24-21 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L38-45 | |
| 5 | 9/25 | Win prob:56% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:81% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:95% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:38% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:73% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:93% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:97% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:60% | |
| 12/13 | Win prob:59% |
Data from 2025-09-21
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 5.3% | 67.5% |
| 7-2 | 22.0% | 17.0% |
| 6-3 | 34.6% | 2.5% |
| 5-4 | 26.0% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 10.1% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 1.8% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-21
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-21
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 7.9% (-0.3%) | 10.5% (+2.3%) | |
| 13.6% (+5.4%) | 1.3% (-6.9%) | |
| 8.2% (+0.1%) | 8.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 8.1% (-0.1%) | 9.5% (+1.3%) | |
| 9.4% (+1.3%) | 8.0% (-0.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Florida AtlanticArmy
South Alabama
Tulsa
NavyCCG: 25.7% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
ArmyCCG: 13.6% • Scenario: 55.9%
Data from 2025-09-21
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
68.3%
3.9%Any 1 loss
20.8%
17.5%67.8%
2.6%
65.3%
1.4%
18.6%
0.2%
11.2%
0.3%
10.2%
0.9%9.0%
0.1%
8.6%
2.5%
8.0%
3.1%
4.8%
6.3%Any 2 losses
10.9%
15.2%66.6%
1.0%21.7%
<0.1%11.6%
0.2%10.6%
<0.1%10.5%
0.6%9.9%
0.1%9.5%
0.1%8.5%
1.8%8.1%
2.1%8.0%
0.3%7.8%
1.0%7.3%
1.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.1%
2.3%4.8%
4.3%Data from 2025-09-21
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-21