Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
52.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W45-10 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W38-16 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W28-7 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W32-31 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:89% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:98% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:85% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:79% | |
| 10 | 10/31 | Win prob:88% | |
| 11 | 11/07 | Win prob:60% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:62% | |
| 14 | 11/27 | Win prob:72% |
Data from 2025-09-21
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 13.5% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 32.9% | 91.0% |
| 6-2 | 32.1% | 28.5% |
| 5-3 | 16.0% | 0.1% |
| 4-4 | 4.6% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.8% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-21
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-21
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 55.3% (+2.7%) | 29.6% (-23.0%) | |
| 51.3% (-1.2%) | 54.1% (+1.6%) | |
| 52.6% (+0.1%) | 52.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 52.4% (-0.2%) | 57.3% (+4.7%) | |
| 55.4% (+2.8%) | 52.2% (-0.4%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Florida Atlantic
Army
South Alabama
Tulsa
RiceCCG: 75.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
MemphisCCG: 55.3% • Scenario: 89.4%
Data from 2025-09-21
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
13.5%Any 1 loss
91.0%
32.9%98.0%
1.7%97.2%
1.9%
96.5%
2.6%
95.0%
3.6%94.7%
0.3%
92.8%
8.4%
87.5%
5.4%
85.4%
9.1%Any 2 losses
28.5%
32.1%64.4%
<0.1%57.7%
0.2%56.8%
<0.1%54.2%
0.3%48.6%
0.4%47.7%
<0.1%46.0%
0.2%45.1%
<0.1%44.5%
0.9%44.1%
1.2%41.5%
0.1%39.4%
0.4%39.4%
1.6%37.2%
0.6%33.1%
1.1%32.8%
1.2%32.8%
0.5%31.3%
2.4%30.6%
1.7%30.3%
0.6%29.6%
0.2%28.8%
0.8%28.7%
1.0%24.2%
3.4%23.5%
5.5%21.7%
2.4%20.4%
1.5%16.2%
3.6%Any 3 losses
1.1%
1.0%1.5%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.3%
0.2%1.1%
0.2%1.0%
0.2%1.0%
0.1%0.8%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%Data from 2025-09-21
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-21