American Athletic Conference

American Athletic Conference Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-09-21

American Athletic ConferenceConference Standings

T1NavyNAVY2-03-026.5%
T1North TexasUNT1-04-052.5%
T1RiceRICE1-03-10.3%
T4MemphisMEM0-04-052.6%
T4TulaneTULN0-03-132.0%
T4UT San AntonioUTSA0-02-29.5%
T4South FloridaUSF0-03-19.4%
T4East CarolinaECU0-02-28.6%
T4ArmyARMY0-11-28.2%
T4UABUAB0-12-20.3%
T4FL AtlanticFAU0-01-2<0.1%
T4TempleTEM0-02-2<0.1%
T4CharlotteCLT0-11-3-
T4TulsaTLSA0-12-2-

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely American Athletic Conference CCG Matchups

121.1%
MemphisMEM
vs
UNTNorth Texas
211.0%
North TexasUNT
vs
TULNTulane
310.9%
MemphisMEM
vs
TULNTulane
49.3%
MemphisMEM
vs
NAVYNavy
57.9%
NavyNAVY
vs
UNTNorth Texas
65.2%
NavyNAVY
vs
TULNTulane
73.9%
ArmyARMY
vs
UNTNorth Texas
83.6%
MemphisMEM
vs
USFSouth Florida
93.0%
MemphisMEM
vs
UTSAUT San Antonio
102.9%
North TexasUNT
vs
UTSAUT San Antonio
112.8%
East CarolinaECU
vs
UNTNorth Texas
122.6%
North TexasUNT
vs
USFSouth Florida
132.5%
East CarolinaECU
vs
MEMMemphis
141.8%
ArmyARMY
vs
MEMMemphis
151.5%
TulaneTULN
vs
UTSAUT San Antonio

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

American Athletic ConferenceCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on American Athletic Conference CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 52.6%
Game
MemphisCCG OddsAway
MemphisCCG OddsHome
MemphisMEM@FL AtlanticFAU
55.3%
(+2.7%)		29.6%
(-23.0%)
ArmyARMY@East CarolinaECU
51.3%
(-1.2%)		54.1%
(+1.6%)
South AlabamaUSA@North TexasUNT
52.6%
(+0.1%)		52.5%
(-0.0%)
TulaneTULN@TulsaTLSA
52.4%
(-0.2%)		57.3%
(+4.7%)
RiceRICE@NavyNAVY
55.4%
(+2.8%)		52.2%
(-0.4%)

Best Winner Combination for Memphis

FL AtlanticFlorida AtlanticArmyArmySouth AlabamaSouth AlabamaTulsaTulsaRiceRice

CCG: 75.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Memphis

MemphisMemphis

CCG: 55.3% • Scenario: 89.4%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

American Athletic ConferenceCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team9-08-18-07-27-16-36-25-35-4Overall
MemphisMEM--100%-91.0%-28.5%0.1%-52.6%
North TexasUNT--100%-84.4%-21.0%<0.1%-52.5%
TulaneTULN--100%-70.5%-7.4%<0.1%-32.0%
NavyNAVY100%83.9%-41.3%-5.4%--<0.1%26.5%
UT San AntonioUTSA--100%-92.2%-31.6%0.1%-9.5%
South FloridaUSF--100%-93.9%-24.3%<0.1%-9.4%
East CarolinaECU--100%-70.5%-5.6%--8.6%
ArmyARMY-67.5%-17.0%-2.5%---8.2%
RiceRICE--100%-96.3%-29.3%0.1%-0.3%
UABUAB----98.2%-31.4%0.1%-0.3%
FL AtlanticFAU----100%-30.8%0.1%-<0.1%
TempleTEM----100%-38.5%0.1%-<0.1%
CharlotteCLT----------
TulsaTLSA----------

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

American Athletic ConferenceFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team9-08-18-07-27-16-36-25-45-34-54-43-63-52-72-61-81-70-8Avg Wins
North TexasUNT(1-0)-0.0%16.6%0.0%34.9%0.0%30.5%0.0%13.8%0.0%3.5%0.0%0.5%0.0%<0.1%-0.0%-6.5
NavyNAVY(2-0)1.9%12.4%0.0%29.9%0.0%33.5%0.0%17.5%0.0%4.3%0.0%0.5%0.0%<0.1%0.0%---6.3
MemphisMEM(0-0)-0.0%13.5%0.0%32.9%0.0%32.1%0.0%16.0%0.0%4.6%0.0%0.8%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%6.3
TulaneTULN(0-0)-0.0%8.6%0.0%29.4%0.0%35.3%0.0%19.8%0.0%5.9%0.0%0.9%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%6.1
ArmyARMY(0-1)-5.3%-22.0%0.0%34.6%0.0%26.0%0.0%10.1%0.0%1.8%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%5.8
East CarolinaECU(0-0)-0.0%1.2%0.0%8.6%0.0%24.3%0.0%33.0%0.0%23.3%0.0%8.2%0.0%1.3%0.0%0.1%0.0%5.0
South FloridaUSF(0-0)-0.0%0.5%0.0%4.8%0.0%18.1%0.0%31.8%0.0%28.3%0.0%13.1%0.0%3.0%0.0%0.4%<0.1%4.6
UT San AntonioUTSA(0-0)-0.0%0.5%0.0%4.4%0.0%15.6%0.0%28.1%0.0%28.7%0.0%16.7%0.0%5.1%0.0%0.8%<0.1%4.5
RiceRICE(1-0)-0.0%0.0%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.8%0.0%5.8%0.0%19.9%0.0%36.3%0.0%29.0%-8.1%-2.9
UABUAB(0-1)---0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.7%0.0%5.1%0.0%17.7%0.0%31.6%0.0%29.5%0.0%13.4%2.0%2.7
FL AtlanticFAU(0-0)-0.0%0.0%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.3%0.0%2.2%0.0%10.3%0.0%27.2%0.0%35.8%0.0%20.9%3.4%2.3
TempleTEM(0-0)-0.0%0.0%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.1%0.0%1.4%0.0%7.4%0.0%22.2%0.0%36.0%0.0%26.4%6.5%2.0
CharlotteCLT(0-1)---0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.7%0.0%5.5%0.0%22.9%0.0%44.4%26.5%1.1
TulsaTLSA(0-1)---0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.3%0.0%3.4%0.0%18.1%0.0%42.8%35.4%0.9

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com