Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
32.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W23-3 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W33-31 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W34-27 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L10-45 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:96% | |
| 7 | 10/09 | Win prob:74% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:62% | |
| 10 | 10/30 | Win prob:64% | |
| 11 | 11/07 | Win prob:40% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:94% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:89% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:95% |
Data from 2025-09-21
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 8.6% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 29.4% | 70.5% |
| 6-2 | 35.3% | 7.4% |
| 5-3 | 19.8% | 0.0% |
| 4-4 | 5.9% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.9% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-21
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-21
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 31.4% (-0.6%) | 37.4% (+5.4%) | |
| 31.5% (-0.5%) | 32.6% (+0.6%) | |
| 32.3% (+0.2%) | 31.9% (-0.1%) | |
| 33.0% (+0.9%) | 11.6% (-20.4%) | |
| 36.1% (+4.0%) | 31.4% (-0.6%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Florida Atlantic
East Carolina
South AlabamaTulane
RiceCCG: 47.4% • Scenario: 0.2%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
TulaneCCG: 33.0% • Scenario: 95.6%
Data from 2025-09-21
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
8.6%Any 1 loss
70.5%
29.4%
86.7%
0.4%84.5%
0.6%
84.0%
0.4%
81.8%
1.1%
80.3%
5.0%76.1%
3.2%
74.4%
5.5%
61.6%
13.4%Any 2 losses
7.4%
35.3%31.3%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%27.1%
<0.1%22.9%
<0.1%20.6%
<0.1%20.3%
<0.1%19.1%
0.2%18.4%
0.1%18.1%
0.1%16.7%
0.2%16.3%
0.4%15.9%
0.6%15.0%
0.3%12.9%
0.3%11.9%
0.2%11.8%
0.3%11.3%
0.4%10.9%
0.6%10.0%
0.9%9.1%
0.6%8.3%
1.8%8.3%
1.7%7.9%
0.6%7.5%
3.1%6.0%
8.3%5.9%
2.0%5.8%
7.6%5.1%
4.7%1.1%
<0.1%Data from 2025-09-21
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-21