Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
4.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W35-3 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W24-13 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W42-3 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W24-17 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:99% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:31% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:56% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:33% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:33% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:18% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:56% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:57% |
Data from 2025-09-21
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.1% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 1.4% | 91.0% |
| 6-2 | 7.6% | 35.1% |
| 5-3 | 20.4% | 0.2% |
| 4-4 | 31.0% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 25.8% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 11.6% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 2.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-21
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-21
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 4.1% (+0.0%) | 4.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 4.1% (-0.0%) | 4.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 4.9% (+0.9%) | 3.7% (-0.4%) | |
| 3.0% (-1.1%) | 4.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 4.0% (-0.1%) | 4.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 4.5% (+0.5%) | 4.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 4.4% (+0.3%) | 4.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 4.1% (-0.0%) | 4.1% (+0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Arkansas
Alabama
Massachusetts
LSU
AuburnCCG: 50.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
AlabamaCCG: 4.9% • Scenario: 29.6%
Data from 2025-09-21
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.1%Any 1 loss
91.1%
1.4%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%98.7%
<0.1%
96.2%
<0.1%
95.4%
0.2%90.7%
0.5%
87.2%
0.2%
84.4%
0.2%Any 2 losses
35.1%
7.6%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%65.6%
<0.1%64.5%
0.2%57.6%
0.1%56.9%
<0.1%56.4%
0.2%50.0%
<0.1%49.2%
<0.1%48.2%
0.2%47.1%
0.2%44.6%
0.5%41.4%
0.2%38.6%
0.4%38.4%
1.1%37.7%
0.4%35.3%
0.4%33.5%
0.2%32.3%
0.2%30.5%
0.5%28.4%
1.1%27.3%
0.2%20.1%
1.0%18.4%
0.5%Any 3 losses
1.2%
2.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.4%
0.1%0.8%
0.1%0.8%
0.8%0.8%
0.4%0.8%
0.1%0.8%
0.3%0.7%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.6%
0.3%0.6%
0.4%Data from 2025-09-21
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-21