NavyMidshipmen

3-0 T1st (2-0) in AAC

Data from 2025-09-21 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

26.5%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	vsVMIVMI	W52-7
2	9/06	vsUABUAB	W38-24
3	9/13	@TulsaTLSA	W42-23
5	9/27	vsRiceRICE	Win prob:88%
6	10/04	vsAir ForceAF	Win prob:78%
7	10/11	@TempleTEM	Win prob:83%
9	10/25	vsFlorida AtlanticFAU	Win prob:90%
10	11/01	@North TexasUNT	Win prob:37%
11	11/08	@Notre DameND	Win prob:2%
12	11/15	vsSouth FloridaUSF	Win prob:67%
14	11/27	@MemphisMEM	Win prob:28%
	12/13	vsArmyARMY(N)	Win prob:41%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
9-0	1.9%	100.0%
8-1	12.4%	83.9%
7-2	29.9%	41.3%
6-3	33.5%	5.4%
5-4	17.5%	0.0%
4-5	4.3%	0%
3-6	0.5%	0%
2-7	0.0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

37.9%

32.3%

21.0%

4.6%

4.2%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
MemphisMEM@Florida AtlanticFAU	26.1% (-0.4%)	29.9% (+3.5%)
ArmyARMY@East CarolinaECU	26.2% (-0.3%)	26.8% (+0.4%)
South AlabamaUSA@North TexasUNT	26.7% (+0.3%)	26.3% (-0.1%)
TulaneTULN@TulsaTLSA	26.2% (-0.3%)	33.4% (+6.9%)
RiceRICE@NavyNAVY	9.1% (-17.4%)	28.9% (+2.4%)

Best Winner Combination for

Florida Atlantic

East Carolina

South Alabama

Tulsa

Navy

CCG: 52.5% • Scenario: 0.1%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Navy

CCG: 28.9% • Scenario: 87.7%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

<0.1%

Any 1 loss

98.1%

1.7%

100.0%

1.5%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

84.6%

<0.1%

81.5%

<0.1%

80.0%

<0.1%

79.1%

<0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

Any 2 losses

83.1%

10.3%

100.0%

2.1%

100.0%

0.4%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

95.1%

0.2%

94.4%

<0.1%

91.3%

0.2%

90.9%

0.3%

87.9%

0.7%

85.7%

<0.1%

78.7%

0.1%

78.4%

2.3%

76.9%

<0.1%

76.9%

3.6%

76.5%

<0.1%

75.0%

<0.1%

71.4%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

28.6%

<0.1%

18.8%

<0.1%

15.4%

<0.1%

13.6%

<0.1%

11.8%

<0.1%

3.1%

0.1%

Any 3 losses

45.2%

25.9%

100.0%

0.6%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

94.1%

<0.1%

93.4%

0.3%

91.1%

0.2%

90.3%

<0.1%

89.5%

0.4%

89.3%

1.0%

87.6%

0.2%

86.0%

<0.1%

81.5%

<0.1%

77.8%

5.1%

75.8%

1.0%

75.2%

3.5%

72.0%

0.7%

66.7%

<0.1%

60.7%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

29.4%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

22.2%

0.1%

21.9%

<0.1%

20.9%

0.1%

20.0%

<0.1%

19.2%

<0.1%

18.2%

<0.1%

16.7%

0.5%

16.4%

0.7%

14.9%

0.4%

13.9%

0.3%

13.0%

0.3%

12.5%

<0.1%

10.9%

<0.1%

10.8%

0.4%

10.0%

<0.1%

8.6%

1.2%

7.5%

1.8%

5.9%

<0.1%

4.8%

<0.1%

4.4%

6.0%

4.2%

<0.1%

3.7%

0.2%

Any 4 losses

16.4%

24.5%

100.0%

<0.1%

95.7%

<0.1%

93.5%

0.1%

91.8%

<0.1%

91.8%

0.3%

76.8%

1.5%

73.9%

1.0%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

30.0%

<0.1%

28.6%

<0.1%

27.6%

0.1%

25.8%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

24.6%

<0.1%

21.1%

0.2%

20.0%

<0.1%

19.1%

0.1%

18.2%

<0.1%

17.5%

<0.1%

16.9%

0.7%

16.7%

0.1%

16.5%

0.1%

15.6%

0.2%

14.9%

<0.1%

14.7%

0.1%

14.3%

<0.1%

13.9%

0.8%

12.9%

0.4%

12.5%

<0.1%

12.2%

1.1%

11.9%

0.7%

11.4%

0.5%

8.0%

<0.1%

7.7%

<0.1%

7.4%

1.7%

7.4%

2.5%

7.2%

0.4%

7.1%

0.5%

5.6%

<0.1%

4.9%

<0.1%

4.1%

8.8%

3.7%

<0.1%

3.4%

1.7%

2.0%

<0.1%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com