RiceOwls

3-1 T1st (1-0) in AAC

Data from 2025-09-21 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

0.3%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	@LouisianaUL	W14-12
2	9/06	vsHoustonHOU	L9-35
3	9/13	vsPrairie View A&MPV	W38-17
4	9/18	@CharlotteCLT	W28-17
5	9/27	@NavyNAVY	Win prob:12%
6	10/04	vsFlorida AtlanticFAU	Win prob:62%
7	10/11	@UTSAUTSA	Win prob:16%
9	10/25	vsUConnCONN	Win prob:32%
10	10/31	vsMemphisMEM	Win prob:12%
11	11/08	vsUABUAB	Win prob:51%
13	11/22	vsNorth TexasUNT	Win prob:18%
14	11/29	@South FloridaUSF	Win prob:17%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	0%	100.0%
7-1	0.1%	96.3%
6-2	0.8%	29.3%
5-3	5.8%	0.1%
4-4	19.9%	0%
3-5	36.3%	0%
2-6	29.0%	0%
1-7	8.1%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

43.3%

30.0%

13.3%

10.0%

3.3%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
MemphisMEM@Florida AtlanticFAU	0.3% (+0.0%)	0.3% (+0.0%)
ArmyARMY@East CarolinaECU	0.4% (+0.0%)	0.3% (-0.0%)
South AlabamaUSA@North TexasUNT	0.3% (-0.0%)	0.3% (+0.0%)
TulaneTULN@TulsaTLSA	0.3% (-0.0%)	0.5% (+0.2%)
RiceRICE@NavyNAVY	1.6% (+1.2%)	0.2% (-0.2%)

Best Winner Combination for

Florida Atlantic

Army

North Texas

Tulsa

Rice

CCG: 5.3% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Rice

CCG: 1.6% • Scenario: 12.3%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

<0.1%

Any 1 loss

100.0%

<0.1%

Any 2 losses

39.3%

0.3%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

93.8%

<0.1%

77.8%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

40.0%

<0.1%

40.0%

<0.1%

34.5%

<0.1%

31.4%

<0.1%

30.8%

<0.1%

26.1%

<0.1%

25.9%

<0.1%

23.8%

<0.1%

23.5%

<0.1%

20.8%

<0.1%

20.0%

<0.1%

18.2%

<0.1%

9.1%

<0.1%

Any 3 losses

22.8%

0.8%

66.7%

<0.1%

60.0%

<0.1%

60.0%

<0.1%

60.0%

<0.1%

54.5%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

45.5%

<0.1%

44.4%

<0.1%

42.9%

<0.1%

35.9%

<0.1%

31.5%

<0.1%

30.6%

<0.1%

30.0%

<0.1%

26.5%

<0.1%

25.8%

<0.1%

25.7%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

24.1%

<0.1%

22.2%

<0.1%

18.2%

<0.1%

12.5%

<0.1%

6.7%

<0.1%

4.3%

<0.1%

0.5%

0.2%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com