Conference USA Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-09-21
Conference Standings
| T1 |  Jacksonville StateJXST | 1-0 | 2-2 | 83.9% | |
| T1 |  Louisiana TechLT | 1-0 | 3-1 | 38.8% | |
| T1 |  DelawareDEL | 1-0 | 3-1 | 27.4% | |
| T1 |  Western KentuckyWKU | 1-0 | 3-1 | 13.0% | |
| T5 |  LibertyLIB | 0-1 | 1-3 | 18.0% | |
| T5 |  Missouri StateMOST | 0-0 | 2-2 | 11.2% | |
| T5 |  Florida InternationalFIU | 0-1 | 2-2 | 3.4% | |
| T5 |  Sam HoustonSHSU | 0-1 | 0-4 | 1.8% | |
| T5 |  UTEPUTEP | 0-0 | 1-3 | 1.3% | |
| T5 |  Middle TennesseeMTSU | 0-0 | 1-3 | 0.6% | |
| T5 |  Kennesaw StateKENN | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0.4% | |
| T5 |  New Mexico StateNMSU | 0-1 | 2-1 | 0.3% | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-09-21
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2025-09-21
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-21
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 83.9%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 83.9% (+0.0%) | 83.6% (-0.3%) | |
| 83.8% (-0.0%) | 83.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 83.8% (-0.1%) | 84.0% (+0.1%) | |
| 83.5% (-0.4%) | 84.1% (+0.2%) | |
| 83.0% (-0.9%) | 86.2% (+2.3%) | |
| 83.5% (-0.4%) | 83.9% (+0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Southern MissMissouri StateKennesaw StateLibertyUTEPNew Mexico StateCCG: 92.1% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
UTEPCCG: 86.2% • Scenario: 27.6%
Data from 2025-09-21
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville StateJXST | 100% | 98.3% | 66.8% | 7.2% | 83.9% |
| Louisiana TechLT | 100% | 94.9% | 48.7% | 4.3% | 38.8% |
| DelawareDEL | 100% | 97.0% | 50.9% | 3.7% | 27.4% |
| LibertyLIB | - | 97.3% | 47.2% | 3.2% | 18.0% |
| Western KentuckyWKU | 100% | 97.2% | 46.0% | 2.8% | 13.0% |
| Missouri StateMOST | 100% | 92.5% | 41.9% | 2.7% | 11.2% |
| Florida InternationalFIU | - | 97.0% | 46.7% | 3.0% | 3.4% |
| Sam HoustonSHSU | - | 98.8% | 55.5% | 3.4% | 1.8% |
| UTEPUTEP | 100% | 99.4% | 57.0% | 4.3% | 1.3% |
| Middle TennesseeMTSU | 100% | 88.9% | 46.3% | 3.5% | 0.6% |
| Kennesaw StateKENN | - | 95.7% | 53.4% | 3.4% | 0.4% |
| New Mexico StateNMSU | - | 88.2% | 37.0% | 2.4% | 0.3% |
Data from 2025-09-21
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville StateJXST(1-0) | 29.0% | 39.9% | 22.7% | 7.0% | 1.3% | 0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | - | 6.9 |
| Louisiana TechLT(1-0) | 4.6% | 18.9% | 31.2% | 27.1% | 13.6% | 4.0% | 0.6% | <0.1% | - | 5.6 |
| DelawareDEL(1-0) | 1.5% | 10.9% | 27.7% | 32.5% | 19.9% | 6.5% | 1.0% | <0.1% | - | 5.2 |
| LibertyLIB(0-1) | - | 6.1% | 23.3% | 34.0% | 24.6% | 9.7% | 2.1% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 4.8 |
| Western KentuckyWKU(1-0) | 0.4% | 4.1% | 16.8% | 31.3% | 30.0% | 14.2% | 3.0% | 0.2% | - | 4.6 |
| Missouri StateMOST(0-0) | 0.5% | 4.2% | 14.5% | 26.5% | 27.7% | 17.9% | 7.1% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 4.3 |
| Florida InternationalFIU(0-1) | - | 0.6% | 4.9% | 16.5% | 29.4% | 28.5% | 15.4% | 4.2% | 0.4% | 3.5 |
| Sam HoustonSHSU(0-1) | - | 0.2% | 2.3% | 10.6% | 25.1% | 31.8% | 21.6% | 7.4% | 1.1% | 3.1 |
| UTEPUTEP(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.2% | 1.5% | 6.9% | 18.7% | 29.9% | 27.5% | 13.0% | 2.4% | 2.8 |
| Kennesaw StateKENN(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.5% | 3.6% | 13.2% | 27.2% | 32.0% | 18.9% | 4.6% | 2.4 |
| Middle TennesseeMTSU(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.8% | 4.0% | 13.2% | 26.4% | 30.8% | 19.5% | 5.3% | 2.4 |
| New Mexico StateNMSU(0-1) | - | <0.1% | 0.4% | 3.3% | 13.1% | 27.4% | 32.3% | 18.9% | 4.5% | 2.4 |
Data from 2025-09-21