Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L16-28 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W42-17 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L10-27 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L25-31 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:28% | |
| 7 | 10/08 | Win prob:27% | |
| 8 | 10/15 | Win prob:37% | |
| 9 | 10/28 | Win prob:53% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:14% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:30% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:69% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:18% |
Data from 2025-09-21
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 0.2% | 99.4% |
| 6-2 | 1.5% | 57.0% |
| 5-3 | 6.9% | 4.3% |
| 4-4 | 18.7% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 29.9% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 27.5% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 13.0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 2.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-21
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-21
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 1.3% (-0.0%) | 1.5% (+0.2%) | |
| 1.2% (-0.1%) | 1.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 1.3% (-0.0%) | 1.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.3% (+0.0%) | 1.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (-0.9%) | 3.6% (+2.4%) | |
| 1.2% (-0.1%) | 1.3% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Southern Miss
Missouri State
Middle Tennessee
Old DominionUTEP
New Mexico StateCCG: 7.9% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
UTEPCCG: 3.6% • Scenario: 27.6%
Data from 2025-09-21
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
99.4%
0.2%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
98.2%
<0.1%Data from 2025-09-21
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-21