Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L14-34 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L10-42 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W14-13 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L28-42 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:44% | |
| 7 | 10/08 | Win prob:37% | |
| 9 | 10/22 | Win prob:14% | |
| 10 | 10/29 | Win prob:11% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:33% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:19% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:37% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:45% |
Data from 2025-09-21
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 0.1% | 88.9% |
| 6-2 | 0.8% | 46.3% |
| 5-3 | 4.0% | 3.5% |
| 4-4 | 13.2% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 26.4% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 30.8% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 19.5% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 5.3% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-21
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-21
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.6% (-0.0%) | 0.7% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.5% (-0.1%) | 0.6% (+0.1%) | |
| 1.1% (+0.5%) | 0.2% (-0.4%) | |
| 0.6% (+0.0%) | 0.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.5% (-0.1%) | 0.8% (+0.2%) | |
| 0.6% (+0.0%) | 0.6% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Southern Miss
Missouri StateMiddle Tennessee
Old Dominion
UTEP
New Mexico StateCCG: 4.8% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Middle TennesseeCCG: 1.1% • Scenario: 43.9%
Data from 2025-09-21
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
89.8%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
72.7%
<0.1%Data from 2025-09-21
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-21