DelawareBlue Hens

3-1 T1st (1-0) in CUSA

Data from 2025-09-21 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

27.4%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/28	vsDelaware StateDSU	W35-17
2	9/06	@ColoradoCOLO	L7-31
3	9/13	vsUConnCONN	W44-41
4	9/20	@Florida InternationalFIU	W38-16
6	10/03	vsWestern KentuckyWKU	Win prob:66%
8	10/15	@Jacksonville StateJXST	Win prob:23%
9	10/22	vsMiddle TennesseeMTSU	Win prob:86%
10	11/01	@LibertyLIB	Win prob:40%
11	11/08	vsLouisiana TechLT	Win prob:55%
12	11/15	vsSam HoustonSHSU(N)	Win prob:66%
13	11/22	@Wake ForestWAKE	Win prob:52%
14	11/29	vsUTEPUTEP	Win prob:82%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	1.5%	100.0%
7-1	10.9%	97.0%
6-2	27.7%	50.9%
5-3	32.5%	3.7%
4-4	19.9%	0%
3-5	6.5%	0%
2-6	1.0%	0%
1-7	0.1%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

71.9%

14.4%

4.6%

4.5%

4.5%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
Jacksonville StateJXST@Southern MissUSM	27.5% (+0.1%)	27.0% (-0.4%)
Western KentuckyWKU@Missouri StateMOST	28.0% (+0.5%)	26.9% (-0.5%)
Middle TennesseeMTSU@Kennesaw StateKENN	27.6% (+0.1%)	27.3% (-0.1%)
LibertyLIB@Old DominionODU	27.6% (+0.2%)	27.3% (-0.1%)
Louisiana TechLT@UTEPUTEP	26.2% (-1.2%)	30.5% (+3.0%)
New Mexico StateNMSU@New MexicoUNM	27.3% (-0.1%)	27.4% (+0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for

Southern Miss

Western Kentucky

Kennesaw State

Liberty

UTEP

New Mexico State

CCG: 41.7% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

UTEP

CCG: 30.5% • Scenario: 27.6%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

0.8%

Any 1 loss

97.5%

6.4%

100.0%

0.7%

100.0%

0.4%

99.1%

0.1%

98.9%

0.2%

98.7%

0.4%

98.2%

1.2%

96.3%

2.7%

94.8%

0.6%

Any 2 losses

63.4%

19.7%

99.4%

0.2%

99.2%

0.1%

99.1%

0.4%

98.9%

0.4%

97.2%

1.1%

96.4%

2.5%

94.5%

0.6%

92.5%

<0.1%

85.7%

<0.1%

85.2%

<0.1%

74.7%

<0.1%

73.3%

0.4%

73.0%

1.5%

71.8%

0.6%

68.5%

0.6%

68.2%

0.2%

66.7%

0.2%

66.0%

0.3%

65.0%

<0.1%

60.8%

0.1%

56.6%

0.2%

55.6%

0.6%

54.6%

0.3%

46.9%

1.4%

45.5%

1.0%

44.7%

4.2%

41.5%

0.3%

29.2%

2.2%

Any 3 losses

24.2%

30.2%

85.9%

<0.1%

85.5%

<0.1%

83.9%

<0.1%

76.1%

<0.1%

74.3%

0.4%

70.8%

<0.1%

69.7%

1.3%

69.4%

0.2%

68.3%

0.5%

67.6%

0.2%

65.1%

0.2%

63.1%

0.6%

61.4%

0.1%

59.7%

0.3%

59.4%

0.1%

53.7%

0.6%

46.3%

1.3%

45.9%

0.3%

45.7%

3.9%

41.9%

0.9%

29.0%

2.0%

14.2%

0.2%

13.2%

<0.1%

11.3%

0.1%

10.3%

<0.1%

9.6%

0.3%

9.4%

<0.1%

8.2%

0.3%

7.3%

0.1%

7.0%

0.1%

6.8%

0.3%

6.7%

<0.1%

6.3%

0.7%

6.3%

0.1%

5.8%

0.7%

5.7%

0.1%

5.3%

<0.1%

5.3%

<0.1%

4.2%

2.1%

3.8%

0.3%

3.8%

0.2%

3.4%

0.9%

3.0%

1.1%

2.8%

0.5%

2.6%

<0.1%

2.4%

2.1%

2.4%

0.5%

2.1%

<0.1%

2.1%

<0.1%

1.9%

0.2%

1.8%

1.1%

1.7%

3.4%

1.6%

0.5%

1.4%

0.1%

1.4%

<0.1%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com