Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | L9-10 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L9-56 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W27-13 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W28-21 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:56% | |
| 7 | 10/09 | Win prob:20% | |
| 8 | 10/21 | Win prob:19% | |
| 9 | 10/28 | Win prob:47% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:44% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:6% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:35% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:12% |
Data from 2025-09-21
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0% | 0% |
| 7-1 | 0.1% | 95.7% |
| 6-2 | 0.5% | 53.4% |
| 5-3 | 3.6% | 3.4% |
| 4-4 | 13.2% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 27.2% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 32.0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 18.9% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 4.6% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-21
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-21
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.4% (+0.0%) | 0.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (-0.0%) | 0.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.4%) | 0.7% (+0.3%) | |
| 0.4% (-0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (-0.1%) | 0.6% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.4% (+0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Southern Miss
Missouri StateKennesaw State
Liberty
UTEP
New Mexico StateCCG: 2.6% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Kennesaw StateCCG: 0.7% • Scenario: 56.1%
Data from 2025-09-21
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Any 1 loss
96.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
90.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
53.8%
0.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.2%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%67.6%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%56.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.4%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%43.4%
0.1%42.9%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%35.9%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%Data from 2025-09-21
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-21