Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
13.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8/23 | W41-24 | |
| 1 | 8/30 | W55-6 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L21-45 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W31-16 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:50% | |
| 6 | 10/03 | Win prob:34% | |
| 7 | 10/14 | Win prob:61% | |
| 8 | 10/21 | Win prob:31% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:83% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:81% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:9% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:17% |
Data from 2025-09-21
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.4% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 4.1% | 97.2% |
| 6-2 | 16.8% | 46.0% |
| 5-3 | 31.3% | 2.8% |
| 4-4 | 30.0% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 14.2% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 3.0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-21
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-21
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 13.0% (+0.0%) | 12.7% (-0.3%) | |
| 20.2% (+7.2%) | 5.9% (-7.1%) | |
| 13.1% (+0.1%) | 12.9% (-0.1%) | |
| 12.8% (-0.2%) | 13.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 12.2% (-0.8%) | 15.1% (+2.1%) | |
| 13.0% (+0.0%) | 13.0% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Southern MissWestern Kentucky
Middle Tennessee
Liberty
UTEP
New MexicoCCG: 28.6% • Scenario: 0.2%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Western KentuckyCCG: 20.2% • Scenario: 49.7%
Data from 2025-09-21
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
98.6%
0.7%
100.0%
0.4%100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
97.5%
<0.1%
96.2%
<0.1%
96.0%
0.1%Any 2 losses
83.4%
5.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.9%
0.4%98.7%
<0.1%97.5%
0.7%96.9%
0.8%96.4%
1.6%78.6%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.2%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%63.3%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.9%
<0.1%52.4%
0.1%52.2%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%43.6%
0.1%43.2%
<0.1%41.9%
0.4%33.3%
<0.1%31.6%
0.3%Any 3 losses
39.8%
17.9%95.2%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%82.6%
<0.1%74.3%
<0.1%70.0%
0.2%68.0%
0.4%66.6%
0.3%66.2%
<0.1%62.5%
0.1%60.2%
1.1%59.3%
0.7%59.1%
0.1%57.9%
0.4%57.4%
0.2%55.6%
0.1%55.1%
0.5%54.1%
1.7%53.4%
0.8%41.5%
1.5%37.7%
3.3%30.5%
3.6%25.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%8.5%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.2%
0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%3.0%
0.2%2.9%
0.3%2.9%
<0.1%1.8%
0.2%1.7%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.2%
0.3%1.1%
0.2%0.8%
0.7%Data from 2025-09-21
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-21