Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | W34-31 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W45-17 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W60-10 | |
| 4 | 9/19 | L28-38 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:42% | |
| 7 | 10/10 | Win prob:40% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:13% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:79% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:27% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:67% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:6% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:5% |
Data from 2025-09-21
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 0% | 0% |
| 7-2 | 0.0% | 17.9% |
| 6-3 | 0.8% | 0% |
| 5-4 | 5.8% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 19.3% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 33.7% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 28.4% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 10.6% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 1.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-21
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-21
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Oregon
Iowa
Illinois
Washington
NorthwesternRutgersCCG: 1.1% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
IllinoisNorthwesternRutgersCCG: 0.1% • Scenario: 9.8%
Data from 2025-09-21
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Any 1 loss
16.4%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%
20.0%
<0.1%
16.7%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%Data from 2025-09-21
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-21