Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L14-34 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L10-42 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W14-13 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L28-42 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L16-24 | |
| 7 | 10/08 | Win prob:39% | |
| 9 | 10/22 | Win prob:11% | |
| 10 | 10/29 | Win prob:10% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:39% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:17% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:50% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:45% |
Data from 2025-09-28
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 6-2 | 0.2% | 47.6% |
| 5-3 | 1.7% | 2.1% |
| 4-4 | 9.1% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 23.8% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 34.2% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 24.1% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 6.9% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-28
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-28
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
New Mexico State
UConn
Western KentuckyCCG: 0.2% • Scenario: 10.2%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
UConnWestern KentuckyCCG: 0.2% • Scenario: 22.0%
Data from 2025-09-28
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Data from 2025-09-28
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-28