Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
32.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W27-14 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W56-9 | |
| 3 | 9/12 | W73-0 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W63-10 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W20-15 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:43% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:98% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:99% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:90% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:24% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:95% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:97% |
Data from 2025-09-28
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 8.5% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 39.6% | 58.3% |
| 7-2 | 42.8% | 1.6% |
| 6-3 | 8.5% | 0% |
| 5-4 | 0.6% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-28
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-28
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 32.2% (-0.1%) | 32.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 38.9% (+6.6%) | 31.8% (-0.4%) | |
| 32.5% (+0.2%) | 31.6% (-0.6%) | |
| 32.1% (-0.1%) | 42.4% (+10.1%) | |
| 38.7% (+6.4%) | 31.5% (-0.8%) | |
| 33.2% (+1.0%) | 32.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 30.9% (-1.4%) | 34.1% (+1.8%) |
Best Winner Combination for
UL Monroe
Purdue
UCLA
WisconsinCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
MarylandCCG: 34.1% • Scenario: 43.1%
Data from 2025-09-28
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
8.5%Any 1 loss
58.3%
39.6%
87.0%
0.2%85.7%
0.1%81.7%
0.9%75.8%
0.4%75.7%
0.2%
63.1%
11.1%
54.7%
26.5%Any 2 losses
1.6%
42.8%50.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%5.7%
1.2%5.7%
0.3%5.5%
0.4%5.3%
0.5%4.8%
0.3%4.5%
0.1%4.1%
2.9%4.1%
0.6%3.5%
1.3%3.2%
0.7%0.9%
34.3%Data from 2025-09-28
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-28